404 S Reynolds Dr · Rio Hondo, TX 78583

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,383 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1979 7,500 sqft lot $90/sqft · 33% below area Est $186k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 404 S Reynolds Rd in charming Rio Hondo! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a ton of potential—perfect for buyers seeking a fixer-upper or investment opportunity. The split floor plan provides functional living space, and the home includes a refrigerator, microwave, gas range, washer, and dryer. Hardwood floors under the carpet! Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with two storage sheds and convenient rear access from Arroyo Blvd. Located within walking distance to parks, local amenities and nearby schools. With a bit of vision and care, this could be the perfect home or rental. Don't miss out on this value-packed opportunity in a great location!

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Two storage sheds
• Local amenities

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• CONVENIENT REAR ACCESS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO PARKS
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($158/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#305 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Rio Hondo ISD (town): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #769 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,550
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -32.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Ebony Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+9%)	6mo	$95,000	$63	65
910 S Reynolds St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,206 (-13%)	6mo	$189,000	$157	53
322 Daisy Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,329 (-4%)	12mo	$245,000	$184	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $41,287
• Equity at exit: $83,180

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $119,862
• Equity at exit: $154,983

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78583

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,185/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,126

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $49	+0% $13	+5% $-22	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-32	+0% $13	+5% $58	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $45	base $13	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 114 DOM
2. 2026-02-04
   listed $125,000 Active 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to 404 S Reynolds Rd in charming Rio Hondo! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a ton of potential—perfect for buyers seeking a fixer-upper or investment opportunity. The split floor plan provides functional living space, and the home includes a refrigerator, microwave, gas range, washer, and dryer. Hardwood floors under the carpet! Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with two storage sheds and convenient rear access from Arroyo Blvd. Located within walking distance to parks, local amenities and nearby schools. With a bit of vision and care, this could be the perfect home or rental. Don't miss out on this value-packed opportunity in a great location!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,185 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$102/yr (+$9/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,185
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$463
• After-tax cash flow: $621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837170
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,099
• Composite: 17.78/100
• National rank: #9014
• State rank: #769 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rio Hondo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #6894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Hondo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,472

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 48% White 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 81%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.58%
• Current HPI: 199.084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $125,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,185 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.