20806 Gridley Rd #52 · Lakewood, CA 90715

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition $211/sqft · 11% below area Est $190k · 11% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to an incredible opportunity to own this amazing 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in a rarely available, non-age restricted, peaceful and spacious Lakewood Estates Park, with amenities including a pool, dog park and clubhouse. This wonderful home features a primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and additional wall to wall closet, a second bedroom with window A/C and generous closet space, a full bathroom with bathtub and shower, and a convenient laundry area with shelves. The open living room and dinning area includes a charming built-in China display cabinet with mirror and plenty of windows to enjoy natural light, while the kitchen features ample cabinets and direct access to the back door. Outside you walk to your private driveway with covered parking for 2 cars (a 3rd car might be possible per management), a storage shed in great conditions, breakfast side patio area, front yard and back yard with irrigation system for your favorite flowers and plants, additional highlights include central heating, hallway linen closets, your own mail box and windows with awnings. Walking distance to a public dog park, close to 605, 405 & 91 freeways and college, nearby Long Beach Towne Center, Cerritos and Lakewood Mall. Don't miss the opportunity to own this beautiful home with your own covered, private parking included.

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Walk-in closet
• Breakfast side patio

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BUILT-IN CHINA DISPLAY CABINET
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• BREAKFAST SIDE PATIO
• IRRIGATION SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.6% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#147 in CA, #4,966 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Abc Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #24 of 517 in CA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.71%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,653
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -10.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20806 Gridley Rd #44	0.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	800 (0%)	9mo	$185,000	$231	86
20806 Gridley Rd #42	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	820 (+2%)	10mo	$200,000	$244	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $59,847
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $164,574
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 90715

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $1,369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11624 208th St Lakewood, CA	3.0	2.0	961	$3,195	$3.32	43d	1	0.27mi
11754 Walcroft St Lakewood, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	43d	1	0.44mi
11441 216th St Lakewood, CA	2.0	2.0	975	$2,650	$2.72	43d	1	0.48mi
11441 216th St Unit 215-09 Lakewood, CA	2.0	2.0	975	$2,650	$2.72	19d	1	0.48mi
11509 216th St Lakewood, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	816	$2,950	$3.62	2d	1	0.49mi
11555 216th St Lakewood, CA	1.0	1.0	630	$2,315	$3.67	7d	2	0.49mi
4220 Los Coyotes Diagonal Lakewood, CA	3.0	1.0	1120	$4,500	$4.02	43d	1	0.51mi
20810 Arline Ave Apt 14 Lakewood, CA	2.0	1.5	896	$2,495	$2.78	43d	1	0.56mi
11839 205th St Lakewood, CA	3.0	1.0	1060	$4,500	$4.25	7d	1	0.62mi
11839 205th St Lakewood, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$4,500	$4.50	43d	1	0.62mi
21525 Pioneer Blvd Lakewood, CA	2.0	2.0	910	$2,595	$2.85	43d	1	0.63mi
20743 Elaine Ave Lakewood, CA	2.0	1.0	740	$2,650	$3.58	7d	1	0.77mi
12022 207th St Lakewood, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$3,950	$3.63	24d	1	0.84mi
12022 207th St Lakewood, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$3,950	$3.63	7d	1	0.84mi
6509 Fairman St Lakewood, CA	2.0	1.0	949	$4,150	$4.37	43d	1	0.85mi
3734 Lees Ave Long Beach, CA	2.0	1.0	887	$3,600	$4.06	43d	1	1.04mi
20817 Ely Ave Lakewood, CA	3.0	1.0	1102	$3,550	$3.22	1d	1	1.22mi
12350 Del Amo Blvd Lakewood, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	866	$2,616	$3.02	2d	27	1.30mi
12050 226th St Hawaiian Gardens, CA	3.0	2.0	1063	$3,100	$2.92	43d	1	1.38mi
12100 226th St Hawaiian Gardens, CA	2.0	1.0	757	$2,195	$2.90	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $169,000 1335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1335 chars)

    Welcome to an incredible opportunity to own this amazing 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in a rarely available, non-age restricted, peaceful and spacious Lakewood Estates Park, with amenities including a pool, dog park and clubhouse. This wonderful home features a primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and additional wall to wall closet, a second bedroom with window A/C and generous closet space, a full bathroom with bathtub and shower, and a convenient laundry area with shelves. The open living room and dinning area includes a charming built-in China display cabinet with mirror and plenty of windows to enjoy natural light, while the kitchen features ample cabinets and direct access to the back door. Outside you walk to your private driveway with covered parking for 2 cars (a 3rd car might be possible per management), a storage shed in great conditions, breakfast side patio area, front yard and back yard with irrigation system for your favorite flowers and plants, additional highlights include central heating, hallway linen closets, your own mail box and windows with awnings. Walking distance to a public dog park, close to 605, 405 & 91 freeways and college, nearby Long Beach Towne Center, Cerritos and Lakewood Mall. Don't miss the opportunity to own this beautiful home with your own covered, private parking included.

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $175,000 Active 1335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1335 chars)

    Welcome to an incredible opportunity to own this amazing 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in a rarely available, non-age restricted, peaceful and spacious Lakewood Estates Park, with amenities including a pool, dog park and clubhouse. This wonderful home features a primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and additional wall to wall closet, a second bedroom with window A/C and generous closet space, a full bathroom with bathtub and shower, and a convenient laundry area with shelves. The open living room and dinning area includes a charming built-in China display cabinet with mirror and plenty of windows to enjoy natural light, while the kitchen features ample cabinets and direct access to the back door. Outside you walk to your private driveway with covered parking for 2 cars (a 3rd car might be possible per management), a storage shed in great conditions, breakfast side patio area, front yard and back yard with irrigation system for your favorite flowers and plants, additional highlights include central heating, hallway linen closets, your own mail box and windows with awnings. Walking distance to a public dog park, close to 605, 405 & 91 freeways and college, nearby Long Beach Towne Center, Cerritos and Lakewood Mall. Don't miss the opportunity to own this beautiful home with your own covered, private parking included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,083
• − Management: −$3,083
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $14,605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,505
• After-tax cash flow: $12,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in fair condition and requires some cosmetic repairs and maintenance to improve its appearance and functionality. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the interior walls, replace the kitchen and bathroom flooring, and replace the kitchen and bathroom cabinets and appliances.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen flooring — The kitchen flooring appears to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.
• Minor Bathroom flooring — The bathroom flooring appears to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — The kitchen cabinets appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.
• Minor Bathroom cabinets — The bathroom cabinets appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.
• Minor Kitchen appliances — The kitchen appliances appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — The bathroom fixtures appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value.
• Resale Replace kitchen flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Resale Replace bathroom flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Resale Replace bathroom cabinets — New cabinets can improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — New appliances can improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and reduce energy costs, making it more attractive to renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen flooring · The kitchen flooring appears to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom flooring · The bathroom flooring appears to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen cabinets · The kitchen cabinets appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom cabinets · The bathroom cabinets appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen appliances · The kitchen appliances appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · The bathroom fixtures appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage or wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$3,000–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom cabinets — New cabinets can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — New appliances can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and reduce energy costs, making it more attractive to renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abc Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601620
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 90% ▲ 24.00%
• Median HH income: $70,852
• Composite: 72.51/100
• National rank: #199
• State rank: #24 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4966

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood, CA
• City population: 59,021
• Population (ZIP): 20,668

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% Asian 26% White 17% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 9% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -783.97%
• Current HPI: 423.2499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $175,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $244 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.