9202 Bright Birdie Ln · Baytown, TX 77521

$218,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $167/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $218,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,399.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 972 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,474 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.07%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,399
• List price: $218,990
• Delta: -19.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9211 Burch Eagle Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	2mo	$205,990	$141	97
9511 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+4%)	3mo	$273,990	$180	90
9210 Callum Nest Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+8%)	2mo	$265,990	$169	85
9307 Captain Terrace Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	2mo	$275,990	$172	82
9231 Alaska Shores Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	2mo	$281,990	$176	81
9214 Burch Eagle Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	2mo	$246,990	$188	81
9207 Burch Eagle Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	2mo	$205,340	$157	80
9503 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	3mo	$269,990	$207	74
9222 Burch Eagle Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	3mo	$255,590	$176	74
9326 Golden Dorado Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$301,990	$189	73
5302 Yellow Perch Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$308,990	$193	72
4703 Painted Bunting Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+12%)	3mo	$249,900	$153	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-79,621
• Equity at exit: $40,616

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-122,541
• Equity at exit: $23,552

Cash invested: $76,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,655 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 972
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,428
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,086/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,594

Max offer price $198,146

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-325	-5% $-419	+0% $-513	+5% $-607	+10% $-701
Rent	-10% $-667	-5% $-590	+0% $-513	+5% $-436	+10% $-360
Rate	-1.0pp $-376	-0.5pp $-444	base $-513	+0.5pp $-584	+1.0pp $-656

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,100
• Closing costs: $8,172
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5130 Red Drum Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,050	$1.35	46d	1	0.25mi
5202 El Tigre Ln Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,105	$1.16	3d	1	0.27mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,045	$1.23	9d	1	0.70mi
8810 Wooster Trails Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,650	$1.13	10d	1	0.77mi
8317 Black Pool St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,400	$1.08	10d	1	0.83mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	120d	1	0.86mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,973	$1.28	67d	1	0.86mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,801	$1.23	139d	1	0.87mi
4151 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1619	$1,951	$1.21	54d	1	0.87mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	100d	1	0.90mi
4122 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,001	$1.24	29d	1	0.91mi
4818 Bentonite Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$1,930	$1.06	0d	1	1.01mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	113d	1	1.08mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: ACMIAnnual association fee of $2,000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story entry (first floor living)Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $218,990 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $218,990 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $218,990 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $218,990 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $218,990 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $218,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $223,990 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $223,990 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $223,990 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $223,990 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $223,990 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $223,990 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $223,990 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $223,990 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $223,990 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $223,990 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $223,990 Active 70 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $223,990 Active 69 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $223,990 Active 68 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $223,990 Active 67 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on market $223,990 Active 66 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $225,990 Active 64 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $225,990 Active 63 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $225,990 Active 62 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $225,990 Active 61 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $225,990 Active 60 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $225,990 Active 59 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $225,990 Active 58 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $225,990 Active 57 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $225,990 Active 56 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $225,990 Active 55 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $225,990 Active 54 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $225,990 Active 53 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $225,990 Active 52 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $225,990 Active 51 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    price $225,990 Active 50 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $228,990 Active 50 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $228,990 Active 49 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $228,990 Active 48 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $228,990 Active 47 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $228,990 Active 45 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $228,990 Active 44 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $228,990 Active 43 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $228,990 Active 42 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $228,990 Active 39 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $228,990 Active 37 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $228,990 Active 36 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $228,990 Active 34 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $228,990 Active 32 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $228,990 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,259
• − Property taxes: −$4,086
• − Insurance: −$1,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$7,924
• Taxable loss: −$11,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,648
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a spacious floor plan. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior stone and adding a fresh coat of paint to the interior walls. — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring with a more modern material like tile or laminate. — Modern flooring can improve the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances to the latest models. — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features like smart lighting and security systems. — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Victoria Walker El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle E F Green Junior School High Goose Creek Memorial F TX #924/1,632 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: ACMIAnnual association fee of $2,000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story entry (first floor living)Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $228,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $233,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-22 Listed $233,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-21 Listed $261,990 Zillow