905 Sea Robin Ln · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$389,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,006 sqft · Townhouse public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $602k · 35% under $412/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

''Immaculate'' 3 bdroom, 2.5 bath Golf Cove. Large foyer, spacious kitchen with breakfast area, seperate dining, living room with fireplace, wet bar with ice machines. Private master Bedroom with large walk-in closet and master bath with seperate shower, whirlpool tub and huge walk in closet, outdoor deck off the breakfast area, built in wine cabinet, new air compressor, new toilets and great location in Legends Golf Course. The home is in move-in condition. Easy to show.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Bay point community
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• BAY POINT COMMUNITY
• OVERLOOKING THE 17TH HOLE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING SPACE
• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Association fees include grounds maintenance and cable TV; Community features include marina; short-term rentals not allowed; Master association / ground keeping and TV cable provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Townhome; Single-story; Entry and main living areas on the first floor; Deed-restricted residential zoning
• Construction: Built in 1986; Frame construction with wood siding; Composite shingle roof
• Exterior features: Open deck; Open patio; Pond view; Located on a cul-de-sac; Curb and gutter; On golf course; Within 1/2 mile to water; Private, paved road access; Flood insurance required

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on the first floor with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms total; 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bathroom with double vanity and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Bookcases; Vaulted ceilings; Fireplace; Recessed lighting; Split bedroom floorplan; Wet bar; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $335k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,350/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $335,008 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $601,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
901 Sea Robin Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,196 (+10%)	2mo	$405,000	$184	79
4620 Bay Point Rd #1005	0.39mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,020 (+1%)	9mo	$605,000	$300	66
4314 Catherine St Unit A-B	0.42mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,045 (+2%)	14mo	$330,000	$161	57
4400 Kingfish Ln #303	0.73mi	3/3.5	1,975 (-2%)	15mo	$1,050,000	$532	48
4121 Cobalt Cir Unit P105	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,840 (-8%)	17mo	$625,000	$340	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-71,526
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-77,154
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,723/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$412
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$704
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,491

Max offer price $369,379

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $-1	+0% $-111	+5% $-221	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-243	+0% $-111	+5% $21	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $-12	base $-111	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2400 Grandiflora Blvd #606 Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	1485	$2,500	$1.68	22d	1	0.75mi
4050 Marriott Dr Unit 1510830P Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1506	$6,212	$4.12	14d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $412 · $4,944/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Active 8 DOM
19. 2026-05-22
    listed $389,000 Active
20. 2026-05-22
    listed $389,000 Active
21. 2026-04-02
    soldstatus $300,000
22. 2005-01-03
    soldstatus $300,000
23. 2004-12-17
    soldstatus $300,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    ''Immaculate'' 3 bdroom, 2.5 bath Golf Cove. Large foyer, spacious kitchen with breakfast area, seperate dining, living room with fireplace, wet bar with ice machines. Private master Bedroom with large walk-in closet and master bath with seperate shower, whirlpool tub and huge walk in closet, outdoor deck off the breakfast area, built in wine cabinet, new air compressor, new toilets and great location in Legends Golf Course. The home is in move-in condition. Easy to show.

24. 2004-10-20
    listed $309,900 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    ''Immaculate'' 3 bdroom, 2.5 bath Golf Cove. Large foyer, spacious kitchen with breakfast area, seperate dining, living room with fireplace, wet bar with ice machines. Private master Bedroom with large walk-in closet and master bath with seperate shower, whirlpool tub and huge walk in closet, outdoor deck off the breakfast area, built in wine cabinet, new air compressor, new toilets and great location in Legends Golf Course. The home is in move-in condition. Easy to show.

25. 2003-07-21
    soldstatus $188,500
26. 2002-10-04
    soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,723 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,229 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,506/yr (+$125/mo · 87.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$1,723
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,216
• − Management: −$3,216
• − HOA: −$4,944
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$7,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+122.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $389,000 ECAR
• 2026-05-22 Listed $389,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-17 Sold (MLS) $300,000 CPARMLS
• 2004-10-20 Listed $309,900 CPARMLS
• 2003-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $188,500 Public Records
• 2002-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,723 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.