1405 W Hickory St · Union City, IN 47390

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1950 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom home near Harter Park. Nice heated sunroom/porch. First time on the market since being built by the original owner in 1950. Original hardwood floors. Large detached garage with workshop area.

Key facts

• Large garage
• Shed
• Nice lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LARGE GARAGE
• SHED
• NICE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; Lot approximately 90 x 186 (0.38 acres); Zoned residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; Window unit air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Crawl space basement; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($943/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#432 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Randolph Eastern School Corporation (town): math 29% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #246 of 301 in IN (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Randolph County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $94.81M (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $95k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,100 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.55%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $20,736
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Sycamore St	0.28mi	2/1.0	825 (-4%)	2mo	$20,000	$24	77
606 Boggs Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	888 (+3%)	14mo	$95,000	$107	70
212 S Walnut St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	989 (+14%)	16mo	$10,000	$10	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $56,658
• Equity at exit: $85,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $162,854
• Equity at exit: $184,370

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47390

• Home prices YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 N Walnut St Union City, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$841	$1.12	43d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $94,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 192-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $94,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$807
• − Management: −$807
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable loss: −$657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$158
• After-tax cash flow: $1,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Randolph Eastern School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803180
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,652
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7570
• State rank: #246 of 301 in IN

Livability — Union City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #15530

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, IN
• Population (ZIP): 5,084

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,998 people
• By 2030: 21,815 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,360 · -15.8%
• By 2050: 17,010 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 12,491 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 8,986 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.3% · R 75.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+48.5 2012: R+24.1 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6736
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $94,900 RRELMS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $94,900,000 RRELMS
• 2021-07-30 Sold (MLS) $53,000 IRMLS
• 2021-07-30 Sold (MLS) $53,000 RRELMS
• 2021-06-14 Listed $61,000 RRELMS
• 2021-06-14 Listed $61,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+46.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $584 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.