12 Elmwood Ave · Friendship, NY 14739

$59,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1900 0.34 ac lot $24/sqft · 41% below area Est $99k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for all investors, contractors, fixer uppers and flippers, opportunity knocks for this ugly duckling ready to turn into a swan. Turn of the century home needs some TLC. There is a new metal roof, new gas furnace, new plumbing, new electrical with new 200 amp circuit breaker, and the house has been stripped to the stud for insulation & drywall. There is a first floor bedroom and full bath, Three additional bedrooms and half bath on the second floor. Attic has been insulated. It still needs expensive drywall and painting done. Quaint & quiet town near Hornell & Olean. Country setting yet has a lot of character and charm. Use your imagination and home can be glorious again! Do some work will save you a lot. Must have proof of fund prior to showing.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#992 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, schools D-.
• Friendship Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #684 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $59k implies a 354% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.99%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,425
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -40.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
91 W Main St	0.21mi	4/1.5	2,440 (-0%)	8mo	$99,900	$41	83
75 W Main St	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,348 (-4%)	12mo	$92,000	$39	76
20 Elmwood Ave	0.07mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,340 (-4%)	17mo	$189,900	$81	68
36 W Water St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,264 (-8%)	17mo	$50,000	$22	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $63,285
• Equity at exit: $44,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.34×
• Total profit: $154,334
• Equity at exit: $87,461

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14739

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $640	+0% $619	+5% $599	+10% $579
Rent	-10% $517	-5% $568	+0% $619	+5% $671	+10% $722
Rate	-1.0pp $649	-0.5pp $634	base $619	+0.5pp $604	+1.0pp $589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $59,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $69,900 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Looking for all investors, contractors, fixer uppers and flippers, opportunity knocks for this ugly duckling ready to turn into a swan. Turn of the century home needs some TLC. There is a new metal roof, new gas furnace, new plumbing, new electrical with new 200 amp circuit breaker, and the house has been stripped to the stud for insulation & drywall. There is a first floor bedroom and full bath, Three additional bedrooms and half bath on the second floor. Attic has been insulated. It still needs expensive drywall and painting done. Quaint & quiet town near Hornell & Olean. Country setting yet has a lot of character and charm. Use your imagination and home can be glorious again! Do some work will save you a lot. Must have proof of fund prior to showing.

18. 2025-05-31
    historical
19. 2025-04-07
    price $69,900
20. 2024-10-27
    price $74,900
21. 2024-08-22
    listed $84,900 Active
22. 2017-03-14
    soldstatus $13,000 Closed Sale or Rented
23. 2017-02-10
    historical Under Contract- Do Not Show
24. 2017-01-18
    price $14,900
25. 2016-12-07
    listed $17,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $6,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,657
• After-tax cash flow: $5,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Friendship Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,835
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10445
• State rank: #684 of 755 in NY

Livability — Friendship

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #19386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Friendship, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,494

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Polish 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.87%
• Current HPI: 301.9616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+290.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $69,900 CNYIS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $69,900 CNYIS
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $74,900 CNYIS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $84,900 CNYIS
• 2017-03-14 Sold (MLS) $13,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-02-10 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2017-01-18 Price Changed $14,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-12-07 Listed $17,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,249 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.