7811 17th Green Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$250,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1978 10,201 sqft lot $104/sqft · 19% below area Est $308k · 19% under $74/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the desirable Pinehurst of Atascocita golf course community, this home offers a spacious and well-designed traditional layout ideal for comfortable living and entertaining. The interior includes expansive living and family areas, a formal dining room, and a bright kitchen with ample counter space and a breakfast nook. A cozy fireplace, generously sized bedrooms, and a large primary suite add to the home’s appeal. The property sits on a sizable lot with a private, fenced backyard, mature trees, and a patio space perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Residents enjoy access to community amenities through the established HOA, including pools, parks, and recreational facilities, along with proximity to Lake Houston. Conveniently located near major roadways, shopping, dining, and top-rated schools, this home combines suburban tranquility with everyday accessibility, making it an excellent opportunity for homeowners or investors seeking value in a well-established neighborhood.

Key facts

• Access to parks
• Access to pools
• Patio space

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• PATIO SPACE
• ACCESS TO POOLS
• ACCESS TO PARKS
• PROXIMITY TO LAKE HOUSTON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $250k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.41%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,110
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -18.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7811 17th Green Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,415 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$104	100
7526 17th Green Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,362 (-2%)	2mo	$324,900	$138	84
7503 17th Green Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,484 (+3%)	1mo	$345,000	$139	82
19830 Atascocita Pines Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,585 (+7%)	0mo	$369,000	$143	74
20306 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,501 (+4%)	0mo	$375,000	$150	60
7311 17th Green Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,676 (+11%)	2mo	$310,000	$116	60
7403 Crown Maples	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,518 (+4%)	1mo	$365,800	$145	58
20335 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,324 (-4%)	1mo	$364,000	$157	57
7342 Crown Maples Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,518 (+4%)	2mo	$374,160	$149	57
7331 Crown Maples Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,539 (+5%)	2mo	$398,110	$157	57
19815 Emerald Bend Way	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,518 (+4%)	0mo	$375,150	$149	56
19834 Emerald Bend Way	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,107 (-13%)	1mo	$304,490	$145	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,648
• Equity at exit: $60,897

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,686
• Equity at exit: $64,417

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,394/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,454

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $328	+0% $257	+5% $187	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $148	+0% $257	+5% $367	+10% $477
Rate	-1.0pp $383	-0.5pp $321	base $257	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19603 Fairway Island Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	3329	$6,500	$1.95	25d	1	0.42mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	45d	1	0.70mi
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	25d	1	0.79mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.90mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	3d	1	0.90mi
20204 Atascocita Shores Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2081	$2,420	$1.16	0d	1	0.91mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	18d	1	0.95mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	0d	14	0.97mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	23d	1	1.01mi
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	23d	1	1.01mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	23d	1	1.06mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	6d	1	1.10mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	23d	1	1.20mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	1.27mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	45d	1	1.30mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	6d	1	1.35mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-04-25
   price $274,500 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Located in the desirable Pinehurst of Atascocita golf course community, this home offers a spacious and well-designed traditional layout ideal for comfortable living and entertaining. The interior includes expansive living and family areas, a formal dining room, and a bright kitchen with ample counter space and a breakfast nook. A cozy fireplace, generously sized bedrooms, and a large primary suite add to the home’s appeal. The property sits on a sizable lot with a private, fenced backyard, mature trees, and a patio space perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Residents enjoy access to community amenities through the established HOA, including pools, parks, and recreational facilities, along with proximity to Lake Houston. Conveniently located near major roadways, shopping, dining, and top-rated schools, this home combines suburban tranquility with everyday accessibility, making it an excellent opportunity for homeowners or investors seeking value in a well-established neighborhood.

5. 2026-03-31
   listed $280,000 Active 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Located in the desirable Pinehurst of Atascocita golf course community, this home offers a spacious and well-designed traditional layout ideal for comfortable living and entertaining. The interior includes expansive living and family areas, a formal dining room, and a bright kitchen with ample counter space and a breakfast nook. A cozy fireplace, generously sized bedrooms, and a large primary suite add to the home’s appeal. The property sits on a sizable lot with a private, fenced backyard, mature trees, and a patio space perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Residents enjoy access to community amenities through the established HOA, including pools, parks, and recreational facilities, along with proximity to Lake Houston. Conveniently located near major roadways, shopping, dining, and top-rated schools, this home combines suburban tranquility with everyday accessibility, making it an excellent opportunity for homeowners or investors seeking value in a well-established neighborhood.

6. 1996-07-12
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,394 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,394 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,394
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,669
• − Management: −$2,669
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$189
• After-tax cash flow: $3,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+205.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $274,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 1996-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,394 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.