18047 Mellon St · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$360,748

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · Land · 43 Days on market

Built 2025 5,040 sqft lot $284/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept layout that combines the kitchen with the living and dining areas, and an outdoor patio is easily reached off the main living space. Upstairs, five bedrooms surround a versatile loft, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• PARKS RECREATIONAL SITES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed; Community directions available
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,964; Total monthly HOA fees shown: $284.33; Total annual fees shown: $3,411.96; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (CCMC Brad Jeffers) — monthly fee of $284.33; HOA fee includes internet and grounds maintenance; Association approval required; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private water source (canal/lake for irrigation); Private sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction, completed; Two levels; Southwest-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar (Edison model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sidewalks; Irrigation (reclaimed water available)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms; Loft (additional room)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $361k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $336,597 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-75,607
• Equity at exit: $53,789

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-112,715
• Equity at exit: $31,191

Cash invested: $101,009 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,892
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$451 /mo · $5,411/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$284
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,515

Max offer price $343,683

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,187
• Closing costs: $10,822
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $284 · $3,408/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,748 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,748 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,748 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,748 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,748 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,748 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $360,748 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,748 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,748 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $360,748 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,748 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $360,748 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,298 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,298 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $359,298 Active
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $359,298 Active 649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (649 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept layout that combines the kitchen with the living and dining areas, and an outdoor patio is easily reached off the main living space. Upstairs, five bedrooms surround a versatile loft, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,207
• − Property taxes: −$5,411
• − Insurance: −$1,804
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,231
• − Management: −$3,231
• − HOA: −$3,408
• − Depreciation: −$10,494
• Taxable loss: −$7,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $359,298 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $359,298 Zillow