11650 Twain Dr · Conroe, TX 77356

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,545 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1980 5,510 sqft lot $152/sqft · 13% below area Est $272k · 13% under $102/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming home features three bedrooms and two full baths in the desirable Walden neighborhood. Included are all furnishings, bicycles, scooters, and a jet ski, making it perfect for both vacations and year-round living. Situated near Lake Conroe, residents can enjoy access to a tennis club, golf club, and a neighborhood pool within walking distance.

Key facts

• Included furnishings
• Access to golf club
• Neighborhood pool

Tags

• ACCESS TO TENNIS CLUB
• ACCESS TO GOLF CLUB
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL
• INCLUDED FURNISHINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Walden #5 association; Annual association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, recreation facilities, marina, fitness center, golf course, pool, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Corner lot in a subdivision; Concrete road access; Entry level: first floor; Built in 1980
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Sprinkler / irrigation; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator; Walk-in pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (11 x 15); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Separate shower; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on the first floor (4 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,291 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,602
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -13.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3062 Poe Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-0%)	2mo	$229,500	$149	88
2914 Whitman Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+2%)	7mo	$259,000	$164	85
11363 Burning Tree Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-5%)	4mo	$259,900	$178	80
2838 Sunburst Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+2%)	8mo	$307,500	$194	75
11807 Briarwood Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+8%)	6mo	$310,000	$186	70
11410 Twain Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,686 (+9%)	12mo	$250,000	$148	67
11366 Glenforest Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-12%)	15mo	$269,900	$198	60
11307 Alcott Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-14%)	5mo	$249,999	$189	58
2823 Sunburst Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+14%)	14mo	$339,000	$193	53
3315 Hemmingway Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+8%)	12mo	$259,900	$155	51
11430 Alcott Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,317 (-15%)	10mo	$184,900	$140	50
12114 Brightwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	13mo	$279,900	$167	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-57,554
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-89,690
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,029/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,238

Max offer price $196,613

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,699	$1.18	5d	1	0.28mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	22d	1	0.30mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	20d	1	0.94mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	44d	1	0.98mi
35 Lakeview Vlg Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$3,000	$1.43	19d	1	1.00mi
12255 Trail Hollow Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	15d	1	1.03mi
62 April Point Dr S Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.5	2153	$1,850	$0.86	24d	1	1.05mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	44d	1	1.08mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	1.09mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	44d	1	1.10mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	1.29mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $102 · $1,224/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Pending 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Pending 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Pending 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Pending 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $235,000 Pending 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $235,000 Active 356-char remark
16. 2026-03-31
    historical
17. 2025-09-28
    listed $249,500 Active
18. 2025-09-25
    historical
19. 2025-06-19
    price $267,000
20. 2025-04-03
    price $284,000
21. 2025-03-20
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2023-12-31
    historical
23. 2023-10-04
    price $309,000
24. 2023-08-14
    listed $330,000 Active
25. 2019-05-30
    historical
26. 2019-05-10
    status Active
27. 2019-05-02
    status Option Pending
28. 2019-04-26
    listed $159,900 Active
29. 1990-04-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,029 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$272/yr (+$23/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,029
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,594
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+47.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $249,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $267,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $284,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Price Changed $309,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-14 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-05-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-26 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 1990-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,029 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.