135 Hillview Dr · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$120,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,117 sqft · Condo public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Minutes away from Greers Ferry Lake Arkansas. Less than 2 hours from Little Rock Arkansas and less than 1 hour from Conway. Vacation time, rental or full time living in this 2 story condo townhouse with plenty of space for friends and family, 2 nice size bedrooms upstairs and 1 full bath, with a 1/2 bath downstairs. Completed washer and dryer hookups/laundry closet. Bedrooms have nice closet space with a extra large size in the guest bedroom. Fiber Internet high speed $70 month optional. Low maintenance fees $159.00 condo association includes trash and building insurance, yard mowing and shrubs, private pool for condo owners and guests only, not available for renters. POA fee is $202.00 mon

Key facts

• Atv utv trails
• Private pool
• Greers ferry lake

Tags

• GREERS FERRY LAKE
• PRIVATE POOL
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• ATV UTV TRAILS
• SCENIC VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $536 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $258 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $-572 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.13%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,808
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,033 (-8%)	18mo	$25,000	$24	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $28,108
• Equity at exit: $32,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $81,868
• Equity at exit: $36,289

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA est. from 23 same-building comps: −$328
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,322

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $570	+0% $536	+5% $502	+10% $468
Rent	-10% $378	-5% $457	+0% $536	+5% $615	+10% $694
Rate	-1.0pp $596	-0.5pp $566	base $536	+0.5pp $505	+1.0pp $473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: trashinternetinsurancepool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $120,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $768 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 72.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$3,936
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,967
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $5,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+215.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $120,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2024-08-26 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $87,000 CARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $90,000 CARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Listed $92,000 CARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Price Changed $92,500 CARMLS
• 2023-07-20 Price Changed $99,000 CARMLS
• 2023-06-18 Listed $105,000 CARMLS
• 2021-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-14 Sold (MLS) $83,000 CARMLS
• 2021-08-16 Pending — CARMLS
• 2021-08-11 Listed $86,900 CARMLS
• 2019-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records
• 2019-05-14 Sold (MLS) $35,500 CARMLS
• 2019-05-04 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-09-06 Price Changed $37,900 CARMLS
• 2017-09-12 Listed $39,900 CARMLS
• 2008-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $444 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.