Trenton Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$449,500

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,326 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 953 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing provided by Zillow (information deemed reliable but not guaranteed)
• Financial info: List price $441,500

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home named Trenton; Active new-construction plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 3326
• Exterior features: Address: 13627 Sunset Sapphire Ct, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Trenton)

🏗️ New construction. The $449,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $465,640.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $448k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $392k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $392,092 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $465,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12226 Radiant Gem Trl	0.40mi	6/3.0	3,326 (0%)	13mo	$474,400	$143	70
12227 Radiant Gem Trl	0.43mi	6/3.0	3,326 (0%)	13mo	$449,900	$135	69
12604 Aura Moonlight Ter	0.44mi	6/3.0	3,326 (0%)	13mo	$447,900	$135	69
12223 Radiant Gem Trl	0.43mi	6/3.0	3,107 (-7%)	1mo	$395,000	$127	68
12946 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.51mi	6/3.0	3,326 (0%)	10mo	$420,800	$127	68
11915 Blue Diamond Trl	0.53mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,354 (+1%)	13mo	$470,000	$140	54
13305 Stable Pl	0.66mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,191 (-4%)	3mo	$614,999	$193	51
11857 Blue Diamond Trl	0.61mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,255 (-2%)	12mo	$507,370	$156	51
13144 Shimmering Amethyst Ct	0.63mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,255 (-2%)	16mo	$440,000	$135	47
13309 Stable Pl	0.68mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,461 (+4%)	8mo	$754,999	$218	44
12222 Radiant Gem Trl	0.41mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (-13%)	13mo	$419,900	$145	41
12621 Aura Moonlight Ter	0.49mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (-13%)	11mo	$383,150	$132	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-94,554
• Equity at exit: $69,428

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-136,377
• Equity at exit: $40,260

Cash invested: $130,379 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$582 /mo · $6,985/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,073

Max offer price $448,217

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $40	+0% $-120	+5% $-281	+10% $-442
Rent	-10% $-430	-5% $-275	+0% $-120	+5% $34	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $-2	base $-120	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,410
• Closing costs: $13,969
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12227 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3326	$3,500	$1.05	4d	1	0.40mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	12d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $449,500 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $449,000 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $448,500 Active 950 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $448,500 Active 948 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $448,500 Active 947 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $448,500 Active 945 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $448,500 Active 944 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $448,500 Active 943 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $448,000 Active 942 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $447,000 Active 938 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $447,000 Active 937 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $447,000 Active 936 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $447,000 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,083
• − Property taxes: −$6,985
• − Insurance: −$2,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,764
• − Management: −$3,764
• − Depreciation: −$13,546
• Taxable loss: −$9,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B