872 Poppy Ln #872 · Dundee, FL 33838

$199,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,574 sqft · Townhouse · 67 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 2,065 sqft lot $148/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Seller motivated. Property is going in foreclosure. Bank will accept Short Sale. Well- kept and hardly lived in, is this 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms townhouse with one-car garage attached. The townhouse has a spacious open concept floor plan in the main living area downstairs and offers two luxurious bedroom suites upstairs. The beautiful kitchen has granite countertops, an island, Whirlpool stainless steel appliances and modern cabinets and a walk in pantry, with lots of storage spaces throughout the unit. The Community is new and upcoming and has a park, a walking trail, a playground and will be a great home for an active family.

Key facts

• Storage spaces
• Granite countertops
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• STORAGE SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $148; Total annual fees: $1,776
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $148 (includes structure maintenance); Association: Melrose Management; Community mailbox; Sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer connected; No water source listed
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two stories; Faces east; Completed condition
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Built on a slab
• Exterior features: Lighting; Sidewalks; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Fire alarm; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($88/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $108,967
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $320,762
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,928

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $76	+0% $7	+5% $-61	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-69	+0% $7	+5% $84	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $58	base $7	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,950	$1.20	24d	1	0.07mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,950	$1.10	24d	1	0.07mi
1207 Coda Ct Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,795	$0.88	15d	1	1.04mi
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	4d	1	1.06mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,850	$1.32	4d	1	1.15mi
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	24d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-04-12
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$759
• After-tax cash flow: $847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and modern amenities, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid