872 Poppy Ln #872 · Dundee, FL 33838

$199,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,574 sqft · Condo · 81 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition Garage $126/sqft · 16% below area Est $236k · 16% under $148/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Seller motivated. Property is going in foreclosure. Bank will accept Short Sale. Well- kept and hardly lived in, is this 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms townhouse with one-car garage attached. The townhouse has a spacious open concept floor plan in the main living area downstairs and offers two luxurious bedroom suites upstairs. The beautiful kitchen has granite countertops, an island, Whirlpool stainless steel appliances and modern cabinets and a walk in pantry, with lots of storage spaces throughout the unit. The Community is new and upcoming and has a park, a walking trail, a playground and will be a great home for an active family.

Key facts

• Storage spaces
• Granite countertops
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• STORAGE SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Dundee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elbert Elementary School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,775/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $177,497 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,900
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -15.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
697 Poppy Ln	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,574 (0%)	0mo	$227,900	$145	98
787 Poppy Ln	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,574 (0%)	1mo	$227,900	$145	96
708 Poppy Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,731 (+10%)	2mo	$235,900	$136	75
685 Poppy Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,817 (+15%)	0mo	$247,900	$136	68
727 Poppy Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,817 (+15%)	1mo	$253,900	$140	66
111 Shepard Ave	1.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (-20%)	2mo	$245,000	$195	32
416 6th St S	0.86mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (+18%)	2mo	$178,600	$96	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $100,791
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.44×
• Total profit: $303,107
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,928

Max offer price $181,489

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-52	+0% $-121	+5% $-190	+10% $-259
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-191	+0% $-121	+5% $-51	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-70	base $-121	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
697 Poppy Ln Dundee, FL	2.0	2.5	1574	$1,655	$1.05	3d	1	0.03mi
430 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1695	$1,755	$1.04	9d	1	0.05mi
624 Poppy Ln Dundee, FL	3.0	3.0	1787	$1,800	$1.01	9d	1	0.05mi
618 Poppy Ln Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1736	$1,680	$0.97	5d	1	0.06mi
618 Poppy Ln Unit 1 Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$1,750	$1.07	9d	1	0.06mi
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,950	$1.20	119d	1	0.07mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,950	$1.10	119d	1	0.07mi
512 Hart Ln Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,690	$0.96	7d	1	0.08mi
319 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,695	$0.96	86d	1	0.10mi
1005 Edmund Ave Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1776	$1,686	$0.95	65d	1	0.69mi
1608 Fitzgerald Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,749	$1.25	0d	1	0.71mi
1609 Steely Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,150	$1.33	9d	1	0.83mi
1804 Canaan Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,905	$1.22	5d	1	0.98mi
1544 Swan Lake Cir Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,871	$1.34	65d	1	1.00mi
1207 Coda Ct Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,695	$0.83	93d	1	1.04mi
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,869	$1.11	63d	1	1.06mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,800	$1.29	85d	1	1.15mi
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	119d	1	1.33mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $148Total annual fees: $1,776
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $148 (includes structure maintenance)Association: Melrose ManagementCommunity mailboxSidewalksPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Fire alarmSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewerCable availableElectricity availableSewer connectedNo water source listed
• Home design: Attached townhouseTwo storiesFaces eastCompleted condition
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofBuilt on a slab
• Exterior features: LightingSidewalksAsphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalIce makerMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetSlab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room comboSplit bedroom layoutWalk-in closetsFire alarmSmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupSeparate laundry room

HOA detail $148/mo · $1,776/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-07-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-07-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-29
   days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-28
   days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-28
   days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-27
   days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-25
   days on market $199,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-23
   days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-06-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
19. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
20. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
21. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
22. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
23. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
24. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
25. 2026-04-12
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,800
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,152
• After-tax cash flow: $-300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,870–$23,610 screening

This well-maintained townhouse is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and modern amenities, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Elbert Elementary School F FL #1,670/2,144 Nat'l #22,595/41,679 Middle Denison Middle School F FL #522/571 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Haines City Senior High School F FL #544/667 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• County: Polk · 752,975 people
• City population: 5,431
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,431
• Household income: $44,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $148Total annual fees: $1,776
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $148 (includes structure maintenance)Association: Melrose ManagementCommunity mailboxSidewalksPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Fire alarmSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewerCable availableElectricity availableSewer connectedNo water source listed
• Home design: Attached townhouseTwo storiesFaces eastCompleted condition
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofBuilt on a slab
• Exterior features: LightingSidewalksAsphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalIce makerMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetSlab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room comboSplit bedroom layoutWalk-in closetsFire alarmSmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupSeparate laundry room

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid