36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit A40 · Carefree, AZ 85377

$589,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · Condo · 1 Days on market

Built 2005 $448/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy resort style living in the heart of Carefree. Just bring your toothbrush and bathing suit - this lower level villa has everything you need included dishes and linens. Great location in this upscale gated community - just a short walk to the community clubhouse which features a heated pool and spa. Over 1900 sq ft of amenities, king size bed in master suite, a 2nd lock off master with 2 queen beds and a separate sitting room, a powder room which includes a walk in shower. The main master includes a walk in closet, jetted tub. Great outdoor living space with patios off every room. Upgraded with pecan stained alder doors, granite countertops in kitchen. Great location - close to all dining, shopping and entertainment options that Carefree, Cave Creek and Scottsdale offer.

Key facts

• Gated village
• $448 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• GATED VILLAGE
• RESORT STYLE COMMUNITY POOL
• DESERT FOREST LUXURY GOLFING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area and lot size sourced from assessor; Heated spa
• HOA & community: Community pool; Community spa (heated); Association with monthly fee; Association fee includes roof repair/replacement, insurance, pest control, grounds and exterior maintenance, street maintenance, front yard maintenance, and trash; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 open parking space; 1 garage space; Garage with opener and attached garage cabinets
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Apartment (attached property); Fee simple ownership; Mountain view; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Built-up and foam roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Wrought iron fencing; Sprinklers front and rear with auto timers; Natural desert landscaping front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Other
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity; Breakfast bar; Furnished (see remarks); No interior steps; Two master bathrooms; Full bath in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Tub with jets; Dual-pane windows; Multi-zone climate control; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $589k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-883 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $460k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $460k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $589k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $460,147 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.43%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $118,742
• Equity at exit: $375,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $392,810
• Equity at exit: $684,592

Cash invested: $164,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$736 /mo · $8,835/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$448
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$966
• Net cashflow: $-883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,720

Max offer price $461,188

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,250
• Closing costs: $17,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B20 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,000	$2.03	43d	1	0.04mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit C16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$5,650	$2.87	43d	1	0.04mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,500	$2.28	43d	1	0.04mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 29C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,900	$1.98	43d	1	0.04mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A5 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$4,950	$2.51	43d	1	0.04mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 12C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	2100	$5,500	$2.62	43d	1	0.04mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A32 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,800	$1.93	43d	1	0.04mi
37210 N Tranquil Trl #13 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1343	$2,860	$2.13	24d	1	0.61mi
37212 N Tranquil Trl Unit 18 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1456	$4,000	$2.75	11d	1	0.61mi
7402 E Carefree Dr #201 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1235	$1,695	$1.37	13d	1	0.80mi
7402 Hum Rd Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1737	$2,800	$1.61	21d	1	0.83mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	43d	1	0.85mi
1 Easy St #19 Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$3,900	$2.11	7d	1	0.85mi
1 Easy St #15 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$3,650	$1.98	7d	1	0.85mi
1 Easy St #2 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$4,000	$2.17	3d	1	0.85mi
1725 E Staghorn Ln Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1690	$9,500	$5.62	43d	1	0.96mi
37200 N Cave Creek Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0–4.0	3.5–4.5	3008	$12,000	$3.99	24d	4	1.26mi
7526 E Club Villa Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2557	$7,500	$2.93	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $448 · $5,376/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 583-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $589,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,993
• − Property taxes: −$8,835
• − Insurance: −$2,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,417
• − Management: −$4,417
• − HOA: −$5,376
• − Depreciation: −$17,135
• Taxable loss: −$20,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+97.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $589,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-01-16 Listed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-16 Sold (MLS) $280,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-01-12 Sold (MLS) $280,000 ARMLS
• 2017-12-30 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-11-09 Listed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2017-07-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-04-06 Listed $299,000 ARMLS