1270 Menix Rd Rd · Olive Hill, KY 41164

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1960 0.70 ac lot $86/sqft · 31% below area Est $201k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

country living at it best house need some tlc great location just mins. from carter caves state park. just mins fromi-64 can be in ashland within 30 mins and lextington within 1 hr.

Key facts

• Country living
• Great location
• 0.7 acre lot

Tags

• COUNTRY LIVING
• GREAT LOCATION
• CARTER CAVES STATE PARK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built above grade (finished area approximately 1,600)
• Exterior features: Porch; Cleared, rolling lot; Rolling, clear topography; Near Carter Caves, Cave Run, Grayson Lake, and Greenbo Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating
• Interior features: Electric range and refrigerator included; Partial, unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#160 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carter City Elementary School (math 74% / reading 84%, grade A, #2 of 676 statewide, top 0%, 144 students, 65% FRL); East Carter Middle School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 505 students, 62% FRL); West Carter County High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 522 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Carter County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,688 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,379
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -26.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,239
• Equity at exit: $50,697

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,982
• Equity at exit: $67,240

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41164

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $128,818

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-88	+0% $-139	+5% $-191	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-184	+0% $-139	+5% $-95	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-102	base $-139	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $149,000 Active 182-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,032
• After-tax cash flow: $-641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 2101020
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,662
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6656
• State rank: #70 of 165 in KY

Livability — Olive Hill

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #8044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,372

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,627 people
• By 2030: 24,598 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 22,429 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 20,217 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,274 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 10,545 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.2% · R 78.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 288.8744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $149,000 AABOR

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $257 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.