191 Route · Carneys Point, NJ 08069

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1945 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property sits on Route 40 in Carneys Point, located close to major roadways for traveling the tri-state area. This property is zoned as a residential property with the first floor open and the upper level consists of a kitchen, living room, bedrooms and a bathroom. Per the zoning officer any commercial use will need a variance.

Key facts

• Upper level bedrooms
• Upper level bathroom
• First floor open

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OPEN
• UPPER LEVEL KITCHEN
• UPPER LEVEL LIVING ROOM
• UPPER LEVEL BEDROOMS
• UPPER LEVEL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private well for water
• Home design: Detached structure; 1,200 finished square feet above grade
• Construction: Brick and aluminum siding exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 150 x 200; No tidal water on the property; Above grade and below grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other type of heating (fuel: other)
• Interior features: Living room; Kitchen; Full unfinished basement with interior access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $919 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 5.1% in Carneys Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#515 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Penns Grove-Carneys Point Regional School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #462 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.77%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
714 Courses Landing Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+10%)	24mo	$340,000	$258	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $42,494
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $112,462
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08069

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $919

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $987	-5% $953	+0% $919	+5% $884	+10% $850
Rent	-10% $758	-5% $838	+0% $919	+5% $999	+10% $1,079
Rate	-1.0pp $968	-0.5pp $944	base $919	+0.5pp $893	+1.0pp $867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 334-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $10,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,411
• After-tax cash flow: $8,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penns Grove-Carneys Point Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3412840
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 11.98/100
• National rank: #9665
• State rank: #462 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Carneys Point

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #21958

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Salem County · 24,175 people
• City population: 13,413
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 13,413
• Household income: $71,942
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 696.0

Population outlook (Salem County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,905 people
• By 2030: 57,351 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 51,837 · -13.5%
• By 2050: 46,356 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 36,452 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 28,907 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 22% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Salem

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.6% · R 58.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+12.8 2016: R+15.4 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.07%
• Current HPI: 290.3853
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,567 · +33.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.