12722 Camellia Glade Ln · Atascocita, TX 77044

$299,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,131 sqft lot Garage $132/sqft · 8% below area Est $325k · 8% under $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home, built in 2020, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. At just six years old, the roof, HVAC, water heater, and major appliances are all in like-new condition. Recent upgrades include fresh paint throughout, luxury vinyl plank flooring downstairs, new carpet upstairs, and a new range, dishwasher, and garbage disposal. All bedrooms are located upstairs, offering privacy, while the main level provides an ideal space for entertaining and everyday living. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into a spacious living area. Outside, enjoy a well-kept yard and driveway that reflect true pride of ownership.

Key facts

• Well-kept yard
• New garbage disposal
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• WELL-KEPT YARD
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW RANGE
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW GARBAGE DISPOSAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 439 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $223k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,071 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,708
• List price: $299,500
• Delta: -7.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15619 Hanover Breeze Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,167 (-4%)	9mo	$325,000	$150	64
12306 Belhaven Terrace Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,239 (-1%)	1mo	$299,950	$134	64
15627 Countesswells Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,105 (-7%)	3mo	$319,900	$152	59
15842 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (+1%)	6mo	$250,000	$110	58
15826 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (-3%)	6mo	$235,000	$107	57
12303 Sterling Oak Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,102 (-7%)	0mo	$349,990	$167	54
12931 Ilderton Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,185 (-3%)	7mo	$300,000	$137	51
12217 Derby Royal Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,013 (-11%)	1mo	$337,000	$167	49
12826 Crombie Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,075 (-8%)	6mo	$315,000	$152	48
13110 Sierra National Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,396 (+6%)	7mo	$409,999	$171	44
13018 Sierra National Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,474 (+9%)	6mo	$405,000	$164	40
13114 Sierra National Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,555 (+13%)	9mo	$399,999	$157	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,550
• Equity at exit: $63,964

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-76,930
• Equity at exit: $60,300

Cash invested: $83,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.7 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $335,000 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax from tax record: −$845 /mo · $10,136/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,293

Max offer price $248,071

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-206	+0% $-291	+5% $-376	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-407	+0% $-291	+5% $-176	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-215	base $-291	+0.5pp $-369	+1.0pp $-448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,875
• Closing costs: $8,985
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,456	$0.92	19d	1	0.14mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	50d	1	0.20mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$6,325	$2.40	0d	1	0.20mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	93d	1	0.57mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	52d	1	0.57mi
12923 Palm Leaf Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$1,901	$0.88	7d	1	0.59mi
15418 Formaston Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,316	$1.21	7d	1	0.86mi
11927 Fletching Stone Ln Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2817	$3,200	$1.14	35d	1	0.90mi
15646 Scolty Reach Ln Unit Labs Atascocita, TX	4.0	3.5	3238	$3,700	$1.14	30d	1	0.94mi
15319 Kinord Run Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2634	$2,581	$0.98	21d	1	1.00mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	93d	1	1.04mi
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2554	$2,600	$1.02	93d	1	1.05mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,696	$1.02	42d	1	1.06mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	51d	1	1.08mi
12543 Highgrove Springs Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,466	$0.98	7d	1	1.20mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	73d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller and municipal utility district disclosures available
• HOA & community: Community managed by Vision Communities ManagementAnnual association fee of $732

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 14 x 14)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 12 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanityKitchen and family room combinedPantrySeparate showerTub with showerVanityKitchen and dining combined

HOA detail $61/mo · $732/yr

• Likely covers: watertrash

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $299,500 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $299,500 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $299,500 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $299,500 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $299,500 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $299,500 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $299,500 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $299,500 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $299,500 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,500 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,500 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,500 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,500 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $299,500 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,500 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $299,500 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $309,500 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $309,500 Active 71 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $309,500 Active 70 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,500 Active 69 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,500 Active 68 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $309,500 Active 67 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $309,500 Active 65 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $309,500 Active 63 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,500 Active 62 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,500 Active 61 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $309,500 Active 60 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $309,500 Active 59 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $309,500 Active 58 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,500 Active 57 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $309,500 Active 56 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $309,500 Active 55 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $309,500 Active 54 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $309,500 Active 53 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $309,500 Active 52 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $309,500 Active 50 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $309,500 Active 48 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $309,500 Active 47 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $309,500 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $309,500 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $309,500 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $309,500 Active 41 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $309,500 Active 39 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $309,500 Active 38 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,500 Active 35 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,500 Active 34 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,500 Active 33 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,500 Active 30 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,500 Active 29 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,500 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,136 · $845/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,136 · $845/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,777
• − Property taxes: −$10,136
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,807
• − Management: −$2,807
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$8,713
• Taxable loss: −$8,381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,011
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,315–$33,945 screening

This well-maintained, recently updated home offers a perfect blend of privacy and open-concept living, with fresh paint and new appliances enhancing its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained yard and driveway improve curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Woodcreek Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Summer Creek H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller and municipal utility district disclosures available
• HOA & community: Community managed by Vision Communities ManagementAnnual association fee of $732

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 14 x 14)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 12 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanityKitchen and family room combinedPantrySeparate showerTub with showerVanityKitchen and dining combined

Price history

+38.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $309,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $319,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $223,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+54.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,136 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.