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12722 Camellia Glade Ln
D+ Composite 45.62
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +12.3/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.8/30.0
  • 1% rule +4.7/10.0
  • Schools +4.4/10.0
  • Appreciation +4.2/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.7/5.0
  • DSCR +1.9/10.0

$289,900

12722 Camellia Glade Ln · Atascocita, TX 77044
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market
Built 2020 Good condition 5,131 sqft lot Garage $128/sqft · 11% below area Est $324k · 11% under $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

2,263 SQ FT UNDER $290K + MOVE-IN READY + 2020 CONSTRUCTION. Welcome to this beautifully maintained home, built in 2020, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. At just six years old, the roof, HVAC, water heater, and major appliances are all in like-new condition. Recent upgrades include fresh paint throughout, luxury vinyl plank flooring downstairs, new carpet upstairs, and a new range, dishwasher, and garbage disposal. All bedrooms are located upstairs, offering privacy, while the main level provides an ideal space for entertaining and everyday living. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into a spacious living area.

Key facts

  • Well-kept yard
  • New garbage disposal
  • Open-concept kitchen

Tags

WELL-KEPT YARDOPEN-CONCEPT KITCHENLUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORINGNEW RANGENEW DISHWASHERNEW GARBAGE DISPOSAL

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (19.3% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (2.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $234k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 511 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • Current owner paid $223k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $233,881 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.97%
Cap rate
4.98%
Cash-on-cash
-4.69%
DSCR
0.79
GRM
8.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$324,272
List price
$289,900
Delta
-10.60%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
12818 Mossy Knoll Dr 0.30mi 3/2.0 2,420 (+7%) 1mo $300,000 $124 72
12819 Pecan Shores Dr 0.56mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,188 (-3%) 1mo $244,000 $112 63
12306 Belhaven Terrace Dr 0.58mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,239 (-1%) 2mo $299,950 $134 62
15419 Surrey Pines Ln 0.58mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,217 (-2%) 0mo $300,000 $135 62
15627 Countesswells Dr 0.58mi 3/2.5 2,105 (-7%) 5mo $319,900 $152 58
15842 Lost Anchor Way Ln 0.64mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,280 (+1%) 8mo $250,000 $110 57
15826 Lost Anchor Way Ln 0.61mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,192 (-3%) 7mo $235,000 $107 55
12303 Sterling Oak Dr 0.57mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,102 (-7%) 2mo $349,990 $167 53
12217 Derby Royal Dr 0.54mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,013 (-11%) 2mo $337,000 $167 48
12826 Crombie Dr 0.71mi 3/2.5 2,075 (-8%) 8mo $315,000 $152 47
12310 English Mist Dr 0.52mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,950 (-14%) 1mo $299,000 $153 45
13018 Sierra National Dr 0.71mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,474 (+9%) 7mo $405,000 $164 38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-17.1%
Equity multiple
0.32×
Total profit
$-55,016
Equity at exit
$61,914
10-year hold
IRR
-13.4%
Equity multiple
0.02×
Total profit
$-79,153
Equity at exit
$58,367

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
44 active · 43 under contract
Months of supply
5.4 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$330,995 ($156/sqft)
Median days on market
90 d
This list price
11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-8.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77044

Home prices YoY
-0.7%
Rents YoY
0.9%
Active inventory
511
Price-to-rent
8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,822 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,520
Tax from tax record
$845 /mo · $10,136/yr
Insurance
$121
HOA
$61
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$593
Net cashflow
$-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,224
Max offer price $233,881
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-153 -5% $-235 +0% $-317 +5% $-399 +10% $-481
Rent -10% $-540 -5% $-429 +0% $-317 +5% $-206 +10% $-94
Rate -1.0pp $-171 -0.5pp $-243 base $-317 +0.5pp $-392 +1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$72,475
Closing costs
$8,697
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 20 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX 4.0 3.0 2663 $2,456 $0.92 65d 1 0.14mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX 4.0 3.0 2631 $5,000 $1.90 97d 1 0.20mi
15342 Majestic Knight Dr Houston, TX 4.0 3.0 2204 $2,600 $1.18 11d 1 0.56mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2620 $3,150 $1.20 98d 1 0.57mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2620 $3,350 $1.28 139d 1 0.57mi
12923 Palm Leaf Ct Houston, TX 4.0 2.5 2158 $1,901 $0.88 54d 1 0.59mi
12823 Ilderton Dr Humble, TX 3.0 3.0 1892 $1,800 $0.95 10d 1 0.79mi
15418 Formaston Dr Humble, TX 3.0 2.5 1919 $2,316 $1.21 54d 1 0.86mi
11927 Fletching Stone Ln Humble, TX 4.0 3.5 2817 $3,200 $1.14 81d 1 0.90mi
14618 Oxwick Cir Houston, TX 3.0 2.5 2480 $2,400 $0.97 45d 1 0.91mi
15646 Scolty Reach Ln Unit Labs Atascocita, TX 4.0 3.5 3238 $3,700 $1.14 76d 1 0.94mi
15319 Kinord Run Dr Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2634 $2,581 $0.98 68d 1 1.00mi
16811 Bornish Hill Ct Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2465 $2,795 $1.13 31d 1 1.03mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2476 $3,100 $1.25 139d 1 1.04mi
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX 3.0 2.0 2554 $2,600 $1.02 140d 1 1.05mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX 3.0 2.0 1758 $1,340 $0.76 97d 1 1.08mi
12543 Highgrove Springs Dr Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2512 $2,466 $0.98 54d 1 1.20mi
12923 Madison Boulder Ln Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2459 $2,814 $1.14 11d 1 1.21mi
16307 Pintado Forest Rd Humble, TX 3.0 2.0 2160 $2,100 $0.97 20d 1 1.32mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 1900 $2,300 $1.21 120d 1 1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Seller and municipal utility district disclosures available
HOA & community
Community managed by Vision Communities ManagementAnnual association fee of $732

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction
Brick and cement siding construction
Exterior features
Located in a subdivision

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 14 x 14)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 12 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 12 x 12)
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features
Double vanityKitchen and family room combinedPantrySeparate showerTub with showerVanityKitchen and dining combined

HOA detail $61/mo · $732/yr

Likely covers
watertrash

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $289,900 Active 139 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 138 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 137 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $289,900 Active 136 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $289,900 Active 135 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $289,900 Active 134 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $289,900 Active 133 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $289,900 Active 132 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $289,900 Active 131 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $289,900 Active 130 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 129 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $289,900 Active 128 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $289,900 Active 127 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 121 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 120 DOM
  16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 118 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 116 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 115 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 114 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 113 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 112 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 110 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 109 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $289,900 Active 108 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 107 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 106 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $289,900 Active 105 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $299,500 Active 104 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $299,500 Active 103 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $299,500 Active 102 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $299,500 Active 101 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,500 Active 100 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $299,500 Active 99 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $299,500 Active 98 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $299,500 Active 97 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $299,500 Active 96 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $299,500 Active 95 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $299,500 Active 94 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $299,500 Active 93 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $299,500 Active 91 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $299,500 Active 90 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $299,500 Active 89 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $299,500 Active 88 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $299,500 Active 87 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $299,500 Active 85 DOM
  46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $299,500 Active 84 DOM
  47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,500 Active 82 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,500 Active 80 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,500 Active 79 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,500 Active 78 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$10,136 · $845/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$10,136 · $845/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$33,868
− Mortgage interest
−$16,239
− Property taxes
−$10,136
− Insurance
−$1,450
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,709
− Management
−$2,709
− HOA
−$732
− Depreciation
−$8,433
Taxable loss
−$8,541
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,050
After-tax cash flow
$-1,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,315–$33,945 screening

This well-maintained, recently updated home offers a perfect blend of privacy and open-concept living, with fresh paint and new appliances enhancing its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both landscaping — Well-maintained yard and driveway improve curb appeal and property value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Woodcreek Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Summer Creek H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Humble ISD
NCES district ID
4823910
Math proficiency
38% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
44% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income
$83,946
Composite
38.55/100
National rank
#4171
State rank
#262 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Atascocita

Score
70/100
State rank
#346
US rank
#7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Atascocita, TX
County
Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population
79,538
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
58,347
Household income
$95,000
Rent vs Own
24.1% rent · 75.9% own
Severe rent burden
7% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
5,571,493 people
By 2030
6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040
7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050
8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075
10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100
12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 36%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born
18% · Canada
Languages at home
61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin
Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing
+3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles
2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+38.8% since first listed
3 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-30 Price Changed $309,500 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-05 Listed $319,500 HARMLS
  • 2026-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $223,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+54.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,136 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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