15251 Village Dr Spc 59 · Victorville, CA 92394

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $69k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful mobile home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, kitchen, living room and dining room. Two carport spaces for for parking and two storage sheds. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE!!!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community offers biking
• HOA & community: Park name: Mojave Mobile Home Park; Trash and water included in rent; Land lease required ($750 monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Two carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (mobile home remains); Entry at ground level
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Lot appears to be in 0–1 unit per acre density

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level home
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hook-ups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.4% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.91%
• DSCR: 3.40
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,724
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15251 Village Dr #52	0.05mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-13%)	0mo	$59,999	$83	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $50,989
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.35×
• Total profit: $144,137
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92394

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $929	-5% $905	+0% $881	+5% $856	+10% $832
Rent	-10% $744	-5% $812	+0% $881	+5% $949	+10% $1,017
Rate	-1.0pp $916	-0.5pp $898	base $881	+0.5pp $862	+1.0pp $844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15410 La Paz Dr Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	766	$1,745	$2.28	0d	3	0.51mi
15523 Barranca Way Unit 10 Victorville, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	0d	1	0.52mi
15634 Sueno Ln Unit D Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,595	$1.61	0d	1	0.73mi
15699 Sueno Ln Unit 06 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	693	$1,395	$2.01	0d	1	0.77mi
15740 Sueno Ln Unit 1 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	15d	1	0.80mi
15678 Avion Ln Unit C Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	0d	1	0.81mi
14715 Mesa Dr Unit B Victorville, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,450	$2.64	11d	1	0.82mi
16340 Villa Dr Apt 1 Victorville, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,250	$2.27	0d	1	0.85mi
15230 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,802	$2.24	0d	12	1.10mi
14299 La Paz Dr Unit 3A Victorville, CA	2.0	1.5	880	$1,495	$1.70	0d	1	1.16mi
16684 Forrest Ave Unit 2 Victorville, CA	3.0	1.0	920	$2,000	$2.17	0d	1	1.19mi
16162 Tawney Ridge Ln Apt 2 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	11d	1	1.24mi
14374 Borego Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,080	$2.47	0d	14	1.29mi
14344 Mcart Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1042	$1,899	$1.82	0d	4	1.33mi
16100 Pebble Beach Dr Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,750	$2.03	0d	6	1.33mi
16450 Lariat Rd Apt 4 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	691	$1,350	$1.95	0d	1	1.43mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 226 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,450	$1.92	0d	1	1.43mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 247 Victorville, CA	1.0	1.0	576	$1,250	$2.17	0d	1	1.43mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 126 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,450	$1.92	15d	1	1.46mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 209 Victorville, CA	2.0	2.0	826	$1,550	$1.88	0d	1	1.46mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 138 Victorville, CA	1.0	1.0	576	$1,250	$2.17	20d	1	1.46mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 225 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,450	$1.92	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $10,051
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,412
• After-tax cash flow: $8,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,614
• Household income: $78,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1485.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 24% Black 20% White 15% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Current HPI: 384.3185
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.46%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $70,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2012): $90 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.