110 W Birch St · Lacy-Lakeview, TX 76640

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1958 Est $200k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

For sake by owner/agent. We added a primary bathroom in the last 5 years and did cosmetic upgrades. Home needs some work, big location and lot size is fantastic! I will work with a buyer & acirc; & euro; & trade; s agent, if you are bringing a serious buyer. Home is currently occupied, do not disturb tenants. Home will be available April 1st.

Key facts

• Primary bathroom
• Lot size
• Cosmetic upgrades

Tags

• PRIMARY BATHROOM
• COSMETIC UPGRADES
• LOT SIZE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1958
• Construction: Living area approximately 1248
• Exterior features: Located in the Elm Mott subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 5.1% in Lacy-Lakeview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Connally ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #781 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.57%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,680
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 W Ash St	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,164 (-7%)	9mo	$115,000	$99	76
4531 S Old Dallas Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,349 (+8%)	9mo	$70,000	$52	61
116 W Birch St	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-15%)	17mo	$170,000	$160	59
174 Shilling Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+14%)	3mo	$285,000	$200	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $74,558
• Equity at exit: $78,688

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $190,424
• Equity at exit: $121,267

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76640

• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,357/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $840

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,397

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $939	-5% $890	+0% $840	+5% $791	+10% $741
Rent	-10% $646	-5% $743	+0% $840	+5% $937	+10% $1,034
Rate	-1.0pp $928	-0.5pp $885	base $840	+0.5pp $795	+1.0pp $749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1180 Mesquite Tree Rd Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,950	$2.95	14d	1	0.60mi
305 Shirley Dr Lacy Lakeview, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,525	$1.39	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $175,000 Active
17. 2022-03-28
    soldstatus
18. 2021-05-05
    soldstatus
19. 2021-02-24
    historical
20. 2021-01-01
    listed $135,000
21. 2019-04-23
    soldstatus
22. 2014-04-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,845/yr (+$154/mo · 135.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,357
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $7,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,842
• After-tax cash flow: $8,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connally ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814970
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,388
• Composite: 16.9/100
• National rank: #9141
• State rank: #781 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lacy-Lakeview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 31,616
• Population (ZIP): 2,958

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+29.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-01-01 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2019-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,357 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.