15614 Harmony Terrace Ct · Atascocita, TX 77044

$259,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,750 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2021 7,988 sqft lot Est $271k · at est. $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning 2-story dream home in a prime cul-de-sac Location! This beautifully designed brick elevation home has been meticulously maintained, and offers privacy and minimal traffic. Features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a versatile flex room perfect for a home office, study, or 4th bedroom. The gourmet kitchen showcases rich toffee cabinets with soft-close upgrades, combining elegance and functionality for everyday living or entertaining. New flooring downstairs. Nestled on a nearly 8,000-sq. -ft. lot, the property offers an expansive backyard ideal for outdoor gatherings or a future pool. Conveniently located near Beltway 8 and zoned to highly regarded Humble ISD and within walking distance

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac location
• Versatile flex room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• BRICK ELEVATION HOME
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SOFT-CLOSE UPGRADES
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of HOA (VCM Bridge); Community pool; Association amenities: Boat dock, Clubhouse, Playground, Park, Pool; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence (back yard); Patio; Pond on lot; Subdivision setting; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor); Bedroom (Second floor); Bedroom (Second floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air (Electric); Thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen and family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Self-closing drawers; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Kitchen and dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Summer Creek H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,600 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,798 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.76%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15614 Harmony Terrace Ct	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,750 (0%)	1mo	$259,000	$148	99
12559 New Castle Park Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-4%)	2mo	$280,000	$166	86
12571 New Castle Park Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,673 (-4%)	0mo	$280,000	$167	84
15606 Clearwater Bend Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-1%)	0mo	$267,500	$155	75
15814 Black Grouse Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,756 (+0%)	3mo	$309,990	$177	68
15334 Rosehill Summit Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,883 (+8%)	1mo	$267,900	$142	67
15843 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+1%)	2mo	$244,900	$139	63
12922 Silverbank Run Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,628 (-7%)	1mo	$264,000	$162	62
12914 Pecan Shores Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,679 (-4%)	3mo	$235,000	$140	59
12818 Crombie Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-12%)	3mo	$284,000	$183	55
12934 Palm Leaf Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+5%)	2mo	$245,000	$133	55
12902 Pecan Shores Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-10%)	3mo	$239,999	$152	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-57,307
• Equity at exit: $55,314

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-87,803
• Equity at exit: $52,146

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$750 /mo · $8,995/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,974

Max offer price $185,798

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	2d	1	0.29mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	43d	1	0.29mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	1d	1	0.86mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	43d	1	1.00mi
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2554	$2,600	$1.02	44d	1	1.15mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	24d	1	1.19mi
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	5d	1	1.26mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$1,999	$1.22	1d	36	1.27mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16788 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,934	$1.35	43d	1	1.43mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,775	$1.24	10d	1	1.43mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,743	$1.22	2d	1	1.43mi
14700 Woodson Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$1,921	$1.90	1d	15	1.44mi
14935 Moonlight Mist Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,200	$2.27	3d	21	1.45mi
14706 Woodson Park Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,838	$1.36	22d	1	1.47mi
14706 Woodson Park Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,838	$1.36	43d	1	1.47mi
14633 Woodson Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,939	$2.05	1d	17	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $259,000
3. 2026-02-05
   price $262,500
4. 2026-01-17
   price $268,500
5. 2026-01-02
   listed $274,750 Active
6. 2025-12-24
   historical
7. 2025-12-14
   price $274,750
8. 2025-11-21
   price $279,000
9. 2025-10-15
   status Active
10. 2025-10-08
    historical
11. 2025-10-07
    listed $289,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,995 · $750/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,995 · $750/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$8,995
• − Insurance: −$2,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$9,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,219
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $262,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $268,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $274,750 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $274,750 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $289,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+50.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,995 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.