6443 Lake Dr · Newcastle, CA 95658

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition Est $172k · 33% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market at no fault of seller with a SIGNIFICANT price adjustment. Welcome to the lovely and tranquil 55+ Community in the rent controlled and affordable Castle City Mobile Home Park. This home is just waiting for your personal touch. The 1344 sq ft doesn't include the enclosed sun porch where you can sit with your favorite beverage as you enjoy the view of the adjacent lake. Freshly painted inside and out, brand new water heater just installed, A/C system installed May, 2024 and a new "cool" shingle roof in December 2020. With Summer coming, you can enjoy the community pool, use the free WiFi in the clubhouse, choose a good book out of the library or stock up at the Fr

Key facts

• Community pool
• Catch release lake
• Library

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUN PORCH
• VIEW OF THE ADJACENT LAKE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• LIBRARY
• CATCH RELEASE LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease: no (listed land lease amount noted separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220 volts in kitchen; 220 volts in laundry; Public sewer; Private water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Original condition; Built in 1976
• Construction: Metal skirting; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Storage area; Storage shed(s); Landscaped front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Pantry cabinet; Laminate counters; Hood over range; Free standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Sunken tub; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Hood over range; Free standing electric range; Green energy: roof; Window coverings and screens; Carpeted covered/enclosed deck and porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with electric hookups; Washer/dryer hookups only inside; Inside laundry area/room; 220 volts available in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 1.6% in Newcastle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#792 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.79%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,032
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6374 Brodie Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,472 (+10%)	2mo	$169,500	$115	78
1911 Hillcrest Dr #067	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$147,500	$102	76
6536 Crest Dr #57	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$184,792	$128	74
1962 Hillcrest Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$186,000	$129	72
6503 Lake Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	19mo	$225,000	$156	72
6074 Coleman Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-12%)	3mo	$185,000	$157	70
6060 Nob Hl	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	24mo	$160,000	$119	69
1755 Sunset Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	14mo	$130,000	$108	66
6556 Crest Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	22mo	$162,500	$135	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $58,882
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $151,312
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95658

• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $1,216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $13,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,268
• After-tax cash flow: $11,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and new A/C system, ready for a new owner to add their personal touch.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newcastle

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #792
• US rank: #22660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newcastle, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,197

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.40%
• Current HPI: 288.3247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B