23284 Woodbine St NW · St. Francis, MN 55070

$309,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1994 0.33 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Starter Home! Wood Floors and Quiet Neighborhood!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Updated rambler
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• UPDATED RAMBLER
• OPEN MAIN LIVING AREA
• FENCED YARD
• HEATED AND INSULATED GARAGE
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE LOWER-LEVEL UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated and insulated garage; Asphalt driveway; 2-car garage (approx. 20x20)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: Residential property; One level; Main entry on main level
• Construction: Block foundation; Asphalt roof (over 8 years old)
• Exterior features: Patio; Vinyl and metal exterior; Chain link fencing; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); Bedroom 2 (main level); Bedroom 3 (main level)
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room (lower level); Breakfast area; 3 bedrooms on one level; Block basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-855 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (48.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (52.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (52.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Francis Area Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #185 of 301 in MN (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: St. Francis Elementary (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C+, #300 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 654 students, 40% FRL); St. Francis Middle (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #172 of 258 statewide, top 68%, 828 students, 32% FRL); St. Francis High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #166 of 471 statewide, top 39%, 1,168 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $310k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $147,500 (52.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.83%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-104,737
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.86×
• Total profit: $-161,552
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55070

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 17.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,194/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,558

Max offer price $158,826

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-680	-5% $-767	+0% $-855	+5% $-943	+10% $-1,031
Rent	-10% $-972	-5% $-913	+0% $-855	+5% $-797	+10% $-739
Rate	-1.0pp $-699	-0.5pp $-776	base $-855	+0.5pp $-936	+1.0pp $-1,017

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2664 230th Ct NW Unit 2570 2/100 St Francis, MN	2.0	1.0	1298	$1,475	$1.14	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $309,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 662-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $309,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,194 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,332 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$12/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$3,194
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$16,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,900
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Francis Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2733540
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $78,137
• Composite: 37.97/100
• National rank: #4300
• State rank: #185 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Francis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Francis, MN
• Population (ZIP): 8,403

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.23%
• Current HPI: 262.9551
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+37.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $309,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-13 Sold (MLS) $165,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-10 Listed $170,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-20 Listed $180,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-19 Listed $225,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,194 · +30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.