816 Willis Ave · Syracuse, NY 13204

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1880 5,000 sqft lot Est $204k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COMFORTABLE CITY 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH HOME OFFERS A LARGE FENCED IN YARD, NEW WATER HEATER FURNACE IS A COUPLE YEARS OLD, GOOD STARTER HOME FOR HANDY BUYER OR INVESTOR, LOCATED NEXT TO A PRIVATE SCHOOL & PLAYGROUND/BALL FIELD OWNER IS OPEN TO ALL OFFERS !!

Key facts

• Hardwood floor
• Full basement
• Private green space

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOOR
• MAIN-LEVEL LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE GREEN SPACE
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric service available
• Home design: 2-story existing residence; Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 125

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Attic; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Syracuse Latin School (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 642 students, 42% FRL); Expeditionary Learning Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 170 students, 76% FRL); Institute of Technology At Syracuse Central (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 581 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $160k implies a 321% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011 Milton Ave	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,477 (+2%)	9mo	$73,000	$49	78
811 Avery Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$155,000	$115	70
413 Herkimer St	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,566 (+8%)	1mo	$260,000	$166	68
326 Essex St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,360 (-6%)	8mo	$235,000	$173	66
703 Schuyler St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,542 (+6%)	3mo	$217,000	$141	63
1907 W Genesee St	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,328 (-8%)	4mo	$118,000	$89	63
216 Essex St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-10%)	9mo	$186,830	$144	63
116 Gere Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-10%)	8mo	$90,000	$69	61
107 Huntshill Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+3%)	8mo	$299,000	$200	61
503 Woods Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	9mo	$155,000	$106	56
557 Tennyson Ave	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,427 (-2%)	3mo	$220,000	$154	54
105 Avoca St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,376 (-5%)	8mo	$172,000	$125	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $117,639
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.88×
• Total profit: $352,898
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13204

• Home prices YoY: 31.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,216/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $378	+0% $332	+5% $287	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $263	+0% $332	+5% $402	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $373	base $332	+0.5pp $291	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Cayuga St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,750	$1.69	15d	1	0.28mi
410 Chemung St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	15d	1	0.35mi
121 W End Dr Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	1082	$1,500	$1.39	15d	1	0.39mi
349 Bryant Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	15d	1	0.76mi
306 Hall Ave Unit Left Side Solvay, NY	3.0	1.5	1120	$1,750	$1.56	45d	1	0.79mi
121 Whittier Ave Syracuse, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$600	$0.43	45d	1	0.90mi
1741 W Onondaga St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	15d	3	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $160,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$744/yr (+$62/mo · 61.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,216
• − Insurance: −$1,466
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $3,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,440
• Household income: $45,351
• Rent vs Own: 70.8% rent · 29.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2073.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.14%
• Current HPI: 416.7272
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.24%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+190.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $160,000 CNYIS
• 2020-09-03 Sold (MLS) $38,000 CNYIS
• 2020-08-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2020-07-17 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2020-07-14 Listed $55,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,216 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.