39249 Lizabeth Cir · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$29,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Land · 166 Days on market

Built 1984 6,730 sqft lot ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NOT A SHORT SALE!! All sizes aproximate, buyer to verify all information. Fixer upper, great for investor or first time home buyer, has a country feel yet is near to town, must see! This property is being sold "As-Is & Where-Is. " There is an encroachment issue. The Buyer MUST sign a "Hold Harmless Agreement" with respect to theencroachment issue as part of the contract & closing.

Key facts

• Mile to downtown
• Public water hookup
• Two entrances

Tags

• PUBLIC WATER HOOKUP
• SECLUDED DIRT ROADS
• TWO ENTRANCES
• MILE TO DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as Residential, Manufactured Home; Zoning: R1MH; Lot size approximately 0.15 acre (about 625 m²)
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information specified
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area approximately 920 square feet
• Exterior features: Dirt road access; Lot about 0.15 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No interior features specified
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $30k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 126.79%
• DSCR: 6.64
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $20,593
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $41,115
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $789

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $467	+0% $458	+5% $450	+10% $441
Rent	-10% $350	-5% $404	+0% $458	+5% $512	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $466	base $458	+0.5pp $450	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	25d	1	0.55mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	25d	1	0.56mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	6d	1	0.77mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	25d	1	0.81mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	0.89mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	25d	1	0.97mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	19d	1	1.01mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	25d	1	1.08mi
38621 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,495	$1.44	0d	1	1.12mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	25d	1	1.15mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	25d	1	1.22mi
8129 Cass Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,100	$2.04	25d	1	1.26mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	25d	1	1.31mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,970	$1.83	0d	33	1.32mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	25d	1	1.32mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	25d	1	1.33mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	6d	1	1.40mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	13d	1	1.42mi
5603 Eugene Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	13d	1	1.42mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	13d	1	1.42mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	25d	1	1.43mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	4d	1	1.44mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,732	$9.22	0d	1	1.45mi
5552 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,900 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $29,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,900 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    status Active
15. 2026-03-31
    status Pending
16. 2026-03-08
    status Active
17. 2026-03-04
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-19
    status Active
19. 2026-02-11
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-19
    price $29,900
21. 2025-12-19
    status Active
22. 2025-12-16
    status Pending
23. 2025-12-09
    listed $39,900 Active
24. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus $10,000 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    NOT A SHORT SALE!! All sizes aproximate, buyer to verify all information. Fixer upper, great for investor or first time home buyer, has a country feel yet is near to town, must see! This property is being sold "As-Is & Where-Is. " There is an encroachment issue. The Buyer MUST sign a "Hold Harmless Agreement" with respect to theencroachment issue as part of the contract & closing.

25. 2009-11-18
    listed $8,500 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    NOT A SHORT SALE!! All sizes aproximate, buyer to verify all information. Fixer upper, great for investor or first time home buyer, has a country feel yet is near to town, must see! This property is being sold "As-Is & Where-Is. " There is an encroachment issue. The Buyer MUST sign a "Hold Harmless Agreement" with respect to theencroachment issue as part of the contract & closing.

26. 2009-01-29
    historical
27. 2008-03-20
    listed $65,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$5,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $5,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $4,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-54.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $29,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-03 Sold (MLS) $10,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-18 Listed $8,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-20 Listed $65,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.