The Hampton Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$237,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Hampton, a stunning example of one-level living that combines elegance and functionality. This home features 1,754 square feet of beautifully designed space, offering four spacious bedrooms and two meticulously crafted bathrooms. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living areas, making it ideal for both relaxation and entertaining. Step outside onto the covered patio or the inviting covered porch, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or hosting evening gatherings. Each detail of the Hampton has been thoughtfully considered to enhance your lifestyle, providing a harmonious blend of comfort and style.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Open floor plan
• Covered patio

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $237,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home — The Hampton plan; New construction (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1,754 finished area)

🏗️ New construction. The $237,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,688.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C C Hardy El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 752 students, 83% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $217,780 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,688
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9754 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,682 (-4%)	3mo	$256,875	$153	81
12501 Falls Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,705 (-3%)	5mo	$269,900	$158	78
9738 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (+4%)	3mo	$289,260	$158	78
12355 Sunset Canyon Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-4%)	2mo	$259,190	$153	74
12529 Canyon Hill Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-5%)	13mo	$275,000	$164	71
668 Crested Duck Ct	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,785 (+2%)	3mo	$324,900	$182	56
676 Crested Duck Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-3%)	3mo	$347,745	$205	53
9654 Live Oak Trl	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,521 (-13%)	5mo	$220,000	$145	53
672 Crested Duck Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,743 (-1%)	7mo	$299,900	$172	52
719 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-3%)	8mo	$359,990	$212	50
715 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,743 (-1%)	10mo	$372,900	$214	50
253 Warbler Song Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	1,984 (+13%)	8mo	$375,990	$190	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-78,447
• Equity at exit: $44,983

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-122,730
• Equity at exit: $26,084

Cash invested: $84,473 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,525/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,639

Max offer price $248,954

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-156	-5% $-260	+0% $-364	+5% $-469	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-536	-5% $-450	+0% $-364	+5% $-278	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-288	base $-364	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,422
• Closing costs: $9,051
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,455	$1.30	0d	6	0.18mi
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	45d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,990 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,990 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,990 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,990 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,990 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,990 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,990 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,990 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,990 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,990 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,990 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,990 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,899
• − Property taxes: −$4,525
• − Insurance: −$1,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − Depreciation: −$8,776
• Taxable loss: −$9,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,342
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Hampton Plan is a well-maintained single-family home with a good condition score, offering a good return on investment with minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and functionality in bathrooms.
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal.
• Both New carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and aesthetics in bedrooms.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and functionality in bathrooms. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal. ↑
• Both New carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and aesthetics in bedrooms. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B