167 Elmtree Rd · Rochester, NY 14612

$219,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1924 0.33 ac lot Est $251k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REHAB/INVESTMENT opportunity!!! Spacious 1,974 sqft charmer with possible 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths and 2 half baths. Bringing this Jem back to life with amazing high ceilings, classic trim work, leaded glass pocket doors, hardwood floors, wood burning fireplace, beautiful built-ins, huge kitchen, formal dining, 3rd floor walk-up. Located on a tranquil lot in prime Charlotte location just steps for Britton Rd Library and Genesee River Trails!!! Delayed Negotiations till Thursday June 12 @10AM

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1924
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $220k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $219,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.10%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,698
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Britton Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,943 (-2%)	11mo	$153,000	$79	76
3397 Lake Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,040 (+3%)	16mo	$180,000	$88	72
55 Pearson St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,968 (-0%)	20mo	$250,000	$127	71
292 River Heights Cir	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (-14%)	3mo	$313,000	$185	63
51 Clearview Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,925 (-2%)	20mo	$190,000	$99	54
223 Denise Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,722 (-13%)	10mo	$245,000	$142	46
311 Chesterfield Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (-13%)	7mo	$250,000	$146	45
64 Hopper Ter	0.62mi	3/1.0	2,062 (+4%)	22mo	$150,000	$73	44
10 Crest St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,156 (+9%)	16mo	$220,000	$102	41
99 Bakerdale Rd	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,690 (-14%)	1mo	$221,000	$131	39
130 Harding Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,724 (-13%)	19mo	$260,500	$151	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,110
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $46,604
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14612

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,201 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,554/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,740

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $489	-5% $427	+0% $364	+5% $302	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $277	+0% $364	+5% $451	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $420	base $364	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Bakerdale Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,650	$1.31	45d	1	0.59mi
37 Linda Dr Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	44d	1	1.06mi
4302 Lake Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1600	$3,000	$1.88	44d	1	1.14mi
148 Chestnut Hill Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,250	$1.36	3d	1	1.30mi
37 Oakmount Dr Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	15d	1	1.32mi
58 Fairview Cres Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	2194	$3,600	$1.64	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $219,900 Active
3. 2025-08-04
   soldstatus $135,000 Closed 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   REHAB/INVESTMENT opportunity!!! Spacious 1,974 sqft charmer with possible 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths and 2 half baths. Bringing this Jem back to life with amazing high ceilings, classic trim work, leaded glass pocket doors, hardwood floors, wood burning fireplace, beautiful built-ins, huge kitchen, formal dining, 3rd floor walk-up. Located on a tranquil lot in prime Charlotte location just steps for Britton Rd Library and Genesee River Trails!!! Delayed Negotiations till Thursday June 12 @10AM

4. 2025-08-04
   soldstatus $135,000

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   REHAB/INVESTMENT opportunity!!! Spacious 1,974 sqft charmer with possible 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths and 2 half baths. Bringing this Jem back to life with amazing high ceilings, classic trim work, leaded glass pocket doors, hardwood floors, wood burning fireplace, beautiful built-ins, huge kitchen, formal dining, 3rd floor walk-up. Located on a tranquil lot in prime Charlotte location just steps for Britton Rd Library and Genesee River Trails!!! Delayed Negotiations till Thursday June 12 @10AM

5. 2025-06-12
   status Pending 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   REHAB/INVESTMENT opportunity!!! Spacious 1,974 sqft charmer with possible 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths and 2 half baths. Bringing this Jem back to life with amazing high ceilings, classic trim work, leaded glass pocket doors, hardwood floors, wood burning fireplace, beautiful built-ins, huge kitchen, formal dining, 3rd floor walk-up. Located on a tranquil lot in prime Charlotte location just steps for Britton Rd Library and Genesee River Trails!!! Delayed Negotiations till Thursday June 12 @10AM

6. 2025-06-05
   listed $79,900 Active 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   REHAB/INVESTMENT opportunity!!! Spacious 1,974 sqft charmer with possible 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths and 2 half baths. Bringing this Jem back to life with amazing high ceilings, classic trim work, leaded glass pocket doors, hardwood floors, wood burning fireplace, beautiful built-ins, huge kitchen, formal dining, 3rd floor walk-up. Located on a tranquil lot in prime Charlotte location just steps for Britton Rd Library and Genesee River Trails!!! Delayed Negotiations till Thursday June 12 @10AM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,554 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,635 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,081/yr (+$90/mo · 69.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,554
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,113
• − Management: −$2,113
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$196
• After-tax cash flow: $4,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 35,152
• Household income: $82,800
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.89%
• Current HPI: 254.157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+175.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $219,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-04 Sold (MLS) $135,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-06-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,554 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.