154 Maple Ave · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 857 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1940 3,000 sqft lot Est $70k · 14% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0

Listing remarks

Let's make a deal! Owners of this home would prefer to sell this house along with 152 Maple Ave right next door! Both homes share a driveway but have separate lots and garages. This home was used as a rental for years but could be used as a guest house or a secondary suite as well! This home has 2 bedrooms and 1 bath located on one floor. The roof and main electrical line on the house were replaced last year. The boiler is also newer. Great investment opportunity! Check out the listing next door at 152 Maple, MLS#R1685399

Key facts

• Newer boiler
• Replaced roof
• Shared driveway

Tags

• SHARED DRIVEWAY
• NEWER BOILER
• REPLACED ROOF
• REPLACED MAIN ELECTRICAL LINE
• GUEST HOUSE POTENTIAL
• SECONDARY SUITE POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 garage space; Garage with electricity and garage door opener; Shared driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (30 x 100)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($980 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $80k implies a 700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.32%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $70,274
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 W Doughty St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	810 (-6%)	13mo	$95,000	$117	66
621 Main St	0.19mi	2/1.0	896 (+5%)	22mo	$58,900	$66	66
57 Tenney St	0.70mi	2/1.0	857 (0%)	8mo	$65,000	$76	61
17 E Benton St	0.46mi	2/1.0	936 (+9%)	15mo	$89,000	$95	51
283 Lincoln Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	976 (+14%)	13mo	$125,000	$128	43
66 Kosciuszko Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (+13%)	15mo	$78,500	$81	28
63 Tenney St	0.72mi	2/1.0	970 (+13%)	24mo	$80,000	$82	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $33,951
• Equity at exit: $44,999

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $89,111
• Equity at exit: $77,386

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $271	+0% $249	+5% $226	+10% $203
Rent	-10% $171	-5% $210	+0% $249	+5% $287	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $289	-0.5pp $269	base $249	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Greco Ln Dunkirk, NY	2.0	1.0	1079	$980	$0.91	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $80,000 Active
17. 2003-10-02
    soldstatus $10,000
18. 2001-02-09
    listed $25,900
19. 1998-09-16
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,113 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,796
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$431
• After-tax cash flow: $2,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+370.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $80,000 UNYREIS
• 2003-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-09 Listed $25,900 UNYREIS
• 1998-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.