The Greenville Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$269,656

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,659 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fix dinner at the Greenville's sprawling kitchen island without missing any of the action in the adjacent family room. An open concept seamlessly blends this single-story layout. The private primary suite boasts an expansive bath and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Expansive bath
• Open concept
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SPRAWLING KITCHEN ISLAND
• OPEN CONCEPT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EXPANSIVE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: Active; Address: Josephine, TX 75173
• Financial info: List price: $289,656

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan home; Listed as 'Plan' inventory type
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,659 (living space measurement provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home: The Greenville (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $269,656 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $254,263.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-504/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,105 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,263
• List price: $269,656
• Delta: 6.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1402 Centerline Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-2%)	2mo	$309,990	$191	72
817 Lexington	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-1%)	12mo	$255,990	$156	64
806 Lexington	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-4%)	12mo	$261,990	$165	57
828 Lexington Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-4%)	15mo	$270,000	$170	57
835 Lexington	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (+4%)	16mo	$305,990	$178	53
913 W Cook St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-8%)	7mo	$525,000	$344	50
507 Fountain View Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,621 (-2%)	12mo	$257,000	$159	47
806 Independence	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-14%)	9mo	$245,000	$173	46
610 Savanna Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+6%)	15mo	$272,500	$155	45
900 Lexington Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+10%)	17mo	$254,990	$140	41
808 Lexington	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-14%)	14mo	$286,500	$202	40
492 Milton St	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-12%)	14mo	$275,000	$189	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $135,835
• Equity at exit: $229,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $402,180
• Equity at exit: $493,977

Cash invested: $71,194 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,333
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$318 /mo · $3,814/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,224

Max offer price $248,182

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $46	+0% $-42	+5% $-130	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-128	+0% $-42	+5% $44	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $23	base $-42	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,566
• Closing costs: $7,628
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	26d	1	0.95mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	1.02mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	1.10mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	1.28mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	1.28mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	1.31mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	1.35mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	1.45mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,656 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,656 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,656 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,656 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,656 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,656 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,656 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,656 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,656 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,656 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,656 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $269,656 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,656 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,656 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,656 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $289,656 Active 249-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,814
• − Insurance: −$1,271
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$7,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Greenville Plan is a well-maintained single-story home with a good condition score. It offers a modern kitchen and living spaces, and potential for further value increases through exterior painting and smart home upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior (if applicable) — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Add smart locks — Enhances security and can attract buyers/renters who value smart home features.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior (if applicable) — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add smart locks — Enhances security and can attract buyers/renters who value smart home features. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B