916 Crystal Ct · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1967 0.34 ac lot Est $202k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors or adventurous 1st time home buyers. Don't miss this Machesney Park gem! This home features - 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, 2.5 Car Garage, Partially Finished Basement, Some hardwood floors. Appliances stay. Nice Backyard with Storage Shed. Located in a nice quiet cul-de-sac. With a little TLC, this would make a great flip, rental or 1st time homebuyer purchase. Priced to sell! This won't last long!

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Storage shed
• Nice backyard

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• NICE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with approximately 2.5 car spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); Two-story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.34 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement with sump pump; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Machesney Elem School (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,116 of 2,056 statewide, top 55%, 344 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.45%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 Van Stone Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	970 (-6%)	10mo	$175,000	$180	68
9509 Lawson Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,070 (+4%)	15mo	$215,000	$201	67
9763 Petunia Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,036 (+0%)	9mo	$240,000	$232	63
1310 Van Ct	0.26mi	3/1.0	960 (-7%)	12mo	$185,000	$193	62
9224 Baldwin Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	956 (-7%)	6mo	$90,000	$94	60
1523 Minns Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+8%)	5mo	$230,000	$206	59
9833 Gentian Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,045 (+1%)	10mo	$225,000	$215	57
9413 Cinncinnati Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,105 (+7%)	8mo	$195,000	$176	56
505 Blossom Ct	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,163 (+13%)	10mo	$228,000	$196	38
402 Langley Rd	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	885 (-14%)	10mo	$161,000	$182	32
9532 Baldwin Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,185 (+15%)	14mo	$185,000	$156	28
1424 Nelson Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-12%)	14mo	$188,000	$206	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,045
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $16,844
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,063/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1028 Minns Dr Unit 1028-D Machesney Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,850	$1.51	21d	1	0.17mi
1051 Minns Dr Unit 1051-3 Machesney Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,700	$1.41	13d	1	0.20mi
7705 Randy Rd Machesney Park, IL	3.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	13d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,518 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,455/yr (+$121/mo · 136.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,063
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$196
• After-tax cash flow: $3,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $175,000 NWIAR

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,063 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.