812 W Clover Rd #62 · Tracy, CA 95376

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition Est $202k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Orchard Estates Mobile Home Park, one of the nicer parks in town, this spacious home offers comfort, convenience, and great community amenities. Inside, you'll find a generous living area ideal for everyday living and entertaining, along with a separate family room that could potentially be converted into a fourth bedroom. Additional highlights include indoor laundry, covered parking, new carpet, fresh interior paint, and new laundry room flooring. Major updates include a newer roof that is less than five years old, an HVAC system that is less than 10 years old and has been serviced twice a year, and a water heater that was updated within the last three years. Community amenities

Key facts

• Generous living area
• Covered parking
• New carpet

Tags

• GENEROUS LIVING AREA
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• COVERED PARKING
• NEW CARPET
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Rent note: $1,045 includes clubhouse, basketball court & pool (from directions field)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: 220V in kitchen; Public sewer; Water from district
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double wide; Built in 1981
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Champion Homes manufacturer
• Exterior features: Storage area; Regular shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storage area; Breakfast area; Dining space in kitchen; Living room with miscellaneous feature
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.6% in Tracy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#496 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tracy Joint Unified (suburban): math 22% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #305 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.08%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,600
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
812 W Clover Rd #74	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$205,000	$153	95
812 W Clover Rd #89	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	7mo	$202,000	$150	93
812 W Clover Rd #51	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	3mo	$190,000	$136	86
812 W Clover Rd #17 #17	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	22mo	$210,000	$150	73
812 W Clover Rd #37	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	10mo	$165,000	$143	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $20,377
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $84,461
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95376

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,774/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 N Tracy Blvd Tracy, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,495	$3.03	2d	9	0.27mi
498 Hintz Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.5	1084	$2,420	$2.23	2d	1	0.28mi
2921 Alene Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.5	1084	$2,400	$2.21	23d	1	0.29mi
2680 Bonifacio Dr Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1332	$3,000	$2.25	3d	1	0.32mi
3440 Buthmann Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,550	$2.39	19d	1	0.42mi
950 W Grant Line Rd Tracy, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	821	$2,685	$3.27	2d	15	0.43mi
1603 Swarthout Ct Unit 1603 Tracy, CA	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,495	$1.92	2d	1	0.59mi
3255 Holly Dr Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$2,200	$2.26	2d	1	0.61mi
1702 W Grant Line Rd Unit 9 Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,995	$2.10	2d	1	0.67mi
80 Portola Way Tracy, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,995	$1.90	2d	1	0.82mi
1720 Bessie Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,475	$2.29	2d	1	0.86mi
321 E Grant Line Rd Tracy, CA	2.0	2.0	963	$2,200	$2.28	2d	1	1.06mi
115 E Emerson Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1112	$2,475	$2.23	21d	1	1.09mi
1414 W 12th St Unit 3 Tracy, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,850	$1.85	2d	1	1.36mi
1143 Wall St Tracy, CA	2.0	2.0	995	$2,600	$2.61	2d	1	1.39mi
1026 Windeler Ave Unit A Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	1326	$1,950	$1.47	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,774
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $6,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,637
• After-tax cash flow: $7,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with recent updates, including a new roof and HVAC system. It offers a spacious living area and is located in a nice park with community amenities. Minor exterior painting and carpet replacement would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home's overall appearance
• Resale Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and adds value
• Both Replace HVAC system — Modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Replace water heater — Modern water heater improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home's overall appearance ↑
• Resale Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and adds value ↑
• Both Replace HVAC system — Modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Replace water heater — Modern water heater improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tracy Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600047
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $73,095
• Composite: 27.94/100
• National rank: #6862
• State rank: #305 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tracy

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #496
• US rank: #16717

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tracy, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 133,642
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,488
• Household income: $102,555
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1328.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 27% Two or more races 21% Asian 13% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -436.54%
• Current HPI: 255.8813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B