300 Ridgeway Dr · Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$167,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2000 0.26 ac lot Est $237k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is a 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (first-floor living)
• Construction: Built in 2000; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (11x10); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (12x9; 10x9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 478 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge Middle (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 213 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 318 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,644 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,649
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Ridgeway Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,239 (0%)	1mo	$167,400	$135	99
210 S Crestside Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+2%)	12mo	$299,900	$237	80
203 Hilltop Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+7%)	14mo	$270,000	$204	74
219 Ridgetop Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+10%)	6mo	$261,500	$191	74
100 Beryl Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	9mo	$219,000	$183	70
399 S Main St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+10%)	1mo	$300,000	$220	67
305 N Church St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-15%)	1mo	$183,000	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $76,254
• Equity at exit: $150,807

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $236,667
• Equity at exit: $325,221

Cash invested: $46,872 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75424

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,784/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,704

Max offer price $125,644

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-142	-5% $-189	+0% $-236	+5% $-284	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-292	+0% $-236	+5% $-181	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-194	base $-236	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,850
• Closing costs: $5,022
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
223 E Pritchard #225 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	45d	1	0.20mi
219 E Pritchard Ln Unit 219 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,000	$0.95	26d	1	0.21mi
505 S Texas 78 Business Unit 78 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	0d	1	0.31mi
6 Bowling Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	3.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.37mi
303 W Davis St Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$1,400	$1.69	26d	1	0.37mi
303 W Davis St Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$1,400	$1.69	0d	1	0.37mi
2 Bowling Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.5	1442	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.37mi
313 N Church St Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,475	$1.32	0d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $167,400
3. 2025-12-22
   listed $186,300 Active
4. 2024-04-26
   soldstatus
5. 2017-12-22
   soldstatus
6. 2016-09-16
   soldstatus
7. 2015-05-04
   soldstatus
8. 2014-12-01
   soldstatus
9. 2014-10-31
   historical
10. 2014-10-06
    listed $114,500
11. 2014-06-23
    historical
12. 2014-04-18
    listed $89,000 Active
13. 2009-12-04
    soldstatus
14. 2009-11-19
    historical
15. 2009-10-30
    listed $82,900
16. 2005-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,784 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,784 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,377
• − Property taxes: −$4,784
• − Insurance: −$837
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$4,870
• Taxable loss: −$5,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,369
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810590
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,738
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2894
• State rank: #154 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #22618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Ridge, TX
• City population: 3,908
• Population (ZIP): 3,908

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.07%
• Current HPI: 354.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $167,400 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $186,300 HARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-10-06 Listed $114,500 NTREIS
• 2014-06-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-04-18 Listed $89,000 NTREIS
• 2009-12-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-11-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-10-30 Listed $82,900 NTREIS
• 2005-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,784 · -8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.