200 Robin Rd · Oak Grove, SC 29073

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1978 0.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home zoned for the highly sought-after River Bluff High School. This updated home features durable LVP flooring throughout, granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathrooms, and beautifully tiled bathrooms. Situated on a spacious . 55 acre lot, the property offers plenty of room for kids to play, outdoor activities, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Pride of ownership shows in how well the home has been cared for. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences while still offering a comfortable residential setting. Disclaimer: CMLS has not reviewed and, therefore, does not endorse vendors who may appear

Key facts

• Tiled bathrooms
• Granite countertops
• Durable lvp flooring

Tags

• DURABLE LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED BATHROOMS
• SPACIOUS .55 ACRE LOT
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Two garage/carport spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Fiber cement (Hardie Plank) exterior finish; Paved road access; Well water

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Granite countertops; Tiled backsplash; Painted cabinets; Recessed lighting
• Bedrooms: Primary suite with private bath, separate shower, tub/shower, walk-in closet (Main level); Bedroom 2 with recessed lighting; Bedroom 3 is a finished room-over-garage (FROG) and requires a closet
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank flooring in bedrooms and living areas; Tile flooring in primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Heat pump on first level
• Interior features: Recessed lighting throughout main living areas; Mud room; Heated laundry space; Granite countertops; Tiled backsplash; Painted cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Heated laundry/mud room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-507/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#114 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove Elementary (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #308 of 597 statewide, top 52%, 738 students, 35% FRL); Meadow Glen Middle (math 51% / reading 65%, grade B, #17 of 229 statewide, top 7%, 808 students, 20% FRL); River Bluff High (math 54% / reading 93%, grade B+, #43 of 196 statewide, top 22%, 2,197 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $215k implies a 1620% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,729 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-37,061
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-33,802
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29073

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $208,885

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $32	+0% $-42	+5% $-117	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-114	+0% $-42	+5% $30	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $12	base $-42	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Landford Ct Lexington, SC	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,450	$1.15	5d	1	0.32mi
536 Idlewood Park Dr West Columbia, SC	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,395	$1.27	25d	1	0.51mi
200 # W Unit Woodberry Rd unit West Columbia, SC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	4d	1	0.64mi
337 Montclaire Ln West Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,899	$1.19	4d	1	0.68mi
600 Ermine Rd Lot 620 West Columbia, SC	4.0	2.0	1216	$1,875	$1.54	21d	1	1.07mi
3220 Woodsen Cir West Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,800	$1.22	25d	1	1.19mi
308 Chisolm Ct Lexington, SC	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $215,000 Pending 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $215,000 Active
16. 2019-03-08
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Oak Grove

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #11681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Grove, SC
• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 53,156
• Household income: $77,229
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.20%
• Current HPI: 249.8957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+1620.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $215,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2019-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $109 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.