701 N Carlson St · Elsa, TX 78543

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1990 $100/sqft · at area comps Est $141k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a nice 4 bedroom/2 bath home with central heat and air. There is also a laundry room and a small 200 sq ft shed for storage. The home is completely fenced and has some off-street parking.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990
• Listed 142 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-532/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#648 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Edcouch-Elsa ISD (suburban): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #822 of 826 in TX (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,493 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,588
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -11.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Valle Vista Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+1%)	3mo	$170,000	$134	84
500 E Vfw St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,181 (-6%)	4mo	$99,000	$84	72
329 Gladiola Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,239 (-1%)	21mo	$185,000	$149	59
202 Laureles Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+0%)	17mo	$135,000	$107	57
415 W Ciro Caceres St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,180 (-6%)	8mo	$110,000	$93	53
310 W Ciro Caceres St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+8%)	16mo	$215,000	$159	53
420 Vfw Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,305 (+4%)	9mo	$110,000	$84	51
205 Encino Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,351 (+8%)	19mo	$224,900	$166	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $24,376
• Equity at exit: $69,110

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $76,959
• Equity at exit: $117,871

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78543

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,081

Max offer price $117,175

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Tulipan Dr Elsa, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$995	$0.98	43d	1	0.50mi
415 Edinburg Ave #107 Elsa, TX	3.0	1.0	1800	$1,500	$0.83	43d	1	0.69mi
300 Sylvia Handy Dr Unit 205 Elsa, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$825	$0.91	43d	1	0.71mi
300 Sylvia Handy Dr Unit 217 Elsa, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$800	$0.88	43d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-01-26
    listed $125,000 Active 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This is a nice 4 bedroom/2 bath home with central heat and air. There is also a laundry room and a small 200 sq ft shed for storage. The home is completely fenced and has some off-street parking.

16. 2024-09-07
    historical $1,200
17. 2024-07-10
    listed $1,200
18. 2023-10-23
    historical $1,200
19. 2023-08-24
    listed $1,200
20. 2021-07-20
    soldstatus
21. 2020-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$531/yr (+$44/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edcouch-Elsa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818060
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $25,724
• Composite: 10.99/100
• National rank: #9744
• State rank: #822 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elsa

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #648
• US rank: #12248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elsa, TX
• City population: 8,608
• Population (ZIP): 8,608

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 56% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 96%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 81%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Current HPI: 250.7357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10316.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $125,000 Fizber.com
• 2024-09-07 Rental Removed $1,200 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-10 Listed for Rent $1,200 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-10-23 Rental Removed $1,200 Avail
• 2023-08-24 Listed for Rent $1,200 Avail
• 2021-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,757 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.