10036 Heritage Oak Drive Plan · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$244,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 853 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 853 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10036 Heritage Oak Drive, Grass Valley, CA 95949; Listing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $244,995

Exterior

• Home design: Plan home; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,456

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Interior features: 2 bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($550/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Sierra Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #354 of 1,571 statewide, top 24%, 319 students, 34% FRL); Magnolia Intermediate (math 24% / reading 51%, grade F, #166 of 498 statewide, top 34%, 379 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 853 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 853 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10040 Stone Arch Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	92
10131 Shamrock Lode	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+2%)	1mo	$60,000	$40	90
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	85
10086 Grinding Rock Dr #208	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	2mo	$75,000	$49	82
10088 Dalewood Way	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	0mo	$138,000	$96	76
10046 Dalewood Way	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	2mo	$160,000	$111	75
10073 Dalewood Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	1mo	$115,000	$80	74
14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,337 (-8%)	1mo	$89,500	$67	74
14969 N Country Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (0%)	1mo	$82,500	$57	71
10024 Golden Shore Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+8%)	0mo	$210,000	$134	68
14867 Hidden Rock Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,658 (+14%)	1mo	$186,000	$112	60
13927 Meda Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-6%)	1mo	$140,000	$102	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,746
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,102
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $244,995

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $131	+0% $46	+5% $-39	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-41	+0% $46	+5% $133	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $108	base $46	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,249
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	5d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,995 Active 853 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $244,995 Active 851 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,995 Active 850 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,995 Active 849 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,995 Active 848 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,995 Active 847 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,995 Active 845 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,995 Active 844 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,995 Active 842 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $244,995 Active 841 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,995 Active 840 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,995 Active 839 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $244,995 Active 836 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,995 Active 835 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,995 Active 834 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,995 Active 833 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,995 Active 832 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,113
• − Management: −$2,113
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$855
• After-tax cash flow: $1,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B