Sherman Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$292,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 216 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $292,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $293k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-523 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $238,192 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,990
• List price: $292,990
• Delta: -15.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2074 Solstice Landing Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	1mo	$346,990	$153	90
2085 Blue Mar Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,172 (-4%)	1mo	$423,166	$195	83
3036 Avalos Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,410 (+6%)	2mo	$404,990	$168	77
3040 Helios Haven Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-10%)	0mo	$334,990	$164	75
1136 Sunlit Cir	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,338 (+3%)	0mo	$354,490	$152	71
1088 Sunlit Cir	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,338 (+3%)	2mo	$279,990	$120	70
3041 Duskshine Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,410 (+6%)	1mo	$383,990	$159	69
1040 Sunlit Cir	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,406 (+6%)	4mo	$385,490	$160	68
3000 Duskshine Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-11%)	0mo	$336,990	$167	66
6414 Breakaway Grove Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-11%)	1mo	$349,990	$174	66
1105 Sunlit Cir	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,406 (+6%)	3mo	$360,040	$150	64
3033 Duskshine Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-15%)	4mo	$331,990	$173	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-96,654
• Equity at exit: $51,886

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-153,901
• Equity at exit: $30,088

Cash invested: $97,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,220/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,044

Max offer price $272,287

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-283	-5% $-403	+0% $-523	+5% $-643	+10% $-764
Rent	-10% $-711	-5% $-617	+0% $-523	+5% $-429	+10% $-335
Rate	-1.0pp $-348	-0.5pp $-435	base $-523	+0.5pp $-613	+1.0pp $-705

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,998
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $292,990 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $343,990 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $343,990 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $343,990 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $343,990 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $343,990 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $343,990 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $343,990 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $343,990 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $343,990 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $343,990 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $343,990 Active 195 DOM
15. 2025-11-17
    listed $343,990 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$5,220
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − Depreciation: −$10,123
• Taxable loss: −$12,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite and a modern open-concept layout. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains can make the space more inviting for renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains can make the space more inviting for renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $343,990 Zillow