Sherman Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$286,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 356 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $286,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.3% in Brookshire — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $252,551 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,990
• List price: $286,990
• Delta: -13.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2000 Solstice Landing Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	3mo	$255,991	$113	95
3028 Duskshine Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	1mo	$346,990	$153	82
3092 Duskshine Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	3mo	$275,990	$122	78
3037 Duskshine Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-11%)	2mo	$255,990	$127	78
2021 Blue Mar Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,428 (+7%)	1mo	$354,990	$146	76
3053 Helios Haven Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-10%)	3mo	$322,670	$159	76
2084 Blue Mar Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,428 (+7%)	4mo	$469,997	$194	74
1036 Sunlit Cir	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,406 (+6%)	1mo	$304,990	$127	71
2004 Solstice Landing Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-15%)	1mo	$243,990	$127	70
1001 Sunlit Cir	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,406 (+6%)	4mo	$363,540	$151	68
3100 Duskshine Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-11%)	3mo	$248,991	$124	61
2076 Blue Mar Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,937 (-14%)	0mo	$299,900	$155	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-78,838
• Equity at exit: $49,203

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-120,307
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 172 active · 77 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.4 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $334,945 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1559
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,529 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,887

Max offer price $289,113

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-168	+0% $-282	+5% $-397	+10% $-511
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-382	+0% $-282	+5% $-183	+10% $-83
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-199	base $-282	+0.5pp $-368	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,498
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $286,990 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $286,990 Active 355 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   price $286,990 Active 354 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $281,990 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $281,990 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $281,990 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $281,990 Active 350 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $281,990 Active 349 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $281,990 Active 348 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $281,990 Active 347 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $281,990 Active 346 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $281,990 Active 345 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $281,990 Active 344 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $281,990 Active 343 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $281,990 Active 342 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $281,990 Active 341 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $281,990 Active 340 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $281,990 Active 339 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $281,990 Active 338 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $281,990 Active 337 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $281,990 Active 336 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $281,990 Active 335 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $281,990 Active 334 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $281,990 Active 333 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $281,990 Active 332 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $281,990 Active 331 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $281,990 Active 330 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $281,990 Active 329 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $281,990 Active 328 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $281,990 Active 327 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $281,990 Active 326 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $281,990 Active 325 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $281,990 Active 324 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $281,990 Active 323 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $281,990 Active 322 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $281,990 Active 321 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $281,990 Active 320 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $281,990 Active 319 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $281,990 Active 318 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $281,990 Active 317 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $281,990 Active 316 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $281,990 Active 315 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $281,990 Active 314 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $281,990 Active 313 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $281,990 Active 312 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    price $281,990 Active 311 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $280,990 Active 311 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $280,990 Active 310 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $280,990 Active 309 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $280,990 Active 308 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,428
• − Management: −$2,428
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$9,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,206
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,315–$33,945 screening

This two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite and a modern open-concept layout. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains can make the space more inviting for renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $343,990 Zillow