Sherman Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$282,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 264 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $282,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-575 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,489 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.81%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,490
• List price: $282,990
• Delta: -21.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3048 Helios Haven Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,170 (-4%)	2mo	$324,990	$150	84
3092 Duskshine Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	0mo	$275,990	$122	81
3053 Helios Haven Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-10%)	0mo	$322,670	$159	78
3005 Helios Hvn	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-10%)	2mo	$314,670	$155	77
2084 Blue Mar Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,428 (+7%)	1mo	$469,997	$194	77
3040 Helios Haven Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-10%)	2mo	$334,990	$164	74
1001 Sunlit Cir	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,406 (+6%)	1mo	$363,540	$151	71
1136 Sunlit Cir	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,338 (+3%)	2mo	$354,490	$152	70
3000 Duskshine Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-11%)	2mo	$336,990	$167	65
3032 Helios Haven Dr	0.14mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,942 (-14%)	1mo	$279,990	$144	62
1084 Sunlit Cir	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,012 (-11%)	1mo	$309,900	$154	56
3036 Duskshine Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+12%)	2mo	$305,490	$120	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-102,273
• Equity at exit: $53,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-163,610
• Equity at exit: $31,255

Cash invested: $101,217 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 140 active · 50 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.1 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $345,990 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 152 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1235
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,896
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,422/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,162

Max offer price $278,343

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-325	-5% $-450	+0% $-575	+5% $-700	+10% $-824
Rent	-10% $-767	-5% $-671	+0% $-575	+5% $-478	+10% $-382
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-483	base $-575	+0.5pp $-668	+1.0pp $-764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,372
• Closing costs: $10,845
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $282,990 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $282,990 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $282,990 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $282,990 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $282,990 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $282,990 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $282,990 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $282,990 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $282,990 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $282,990 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $282,990 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $282,990 Active 247 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $282,990 Active 246 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $282,990 Active 245 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 243 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 242 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $282,990 Active 241 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $282,990 Active 240 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $282,990 Active 239 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 238 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 237 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $282,990 Active 236 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $282,990 Active 235 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $282,990 Active 234 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    price $282,990 Active 232 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $292,990 Active 232 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $292,990 Active 231 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $292,990 Active 230 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $292,990 Active 229 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $292,990 Active 228 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $292,990 Active 227 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $292,990 Active 226 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $292,990 Active 225 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $292,990 Active 224 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $292,990 Active 223 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $292,990 Active 222 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $292,990 Active 221 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $292,990 Active 219 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $292,990 Active 217 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $292,990 Active 216 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $343,990 Active 213 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $343,990 Active 212 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $343,990 Active 211 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $343,990 Active 210 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $343,990 Active 208 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $343,990 Active 204 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $343,990 Active 203 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $343,990 Active 202 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 199 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 198 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,249
• − Property taxes: −$5,422
• − Insurance: −$1,807
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
• − Management: −$2,337
• − Depreciation: −$10,516
• Taxable loss: −$13,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,228
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,315–$33,945 screening

This two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite and a modern open-concept layout. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains can make the space more inviting for renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $343,990 Zillow