12420 Hopscotch Ave · Parrish, FL 34219

$334,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Land · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 6,240 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! REDTAG SALE! Receive up to $20,000 towards closing costs, $5,000 towards upgrades and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Sunday, April 26th. Oakfield Lakes consists of single-family homes all designed to meet the needs of today’s modern family. At the heart of Oakfield Lakes is The Grove, our central community hub that's an inviting space for socializing, relaxing and playing, featuring dedicated spaces for cooking, food trucks and year-round get-togethers. Available for Oakfield Lakes residents will be a resort-style pool, splash pad, playground and dog park for our 4-legged family members.

Key facts

• 6,240 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Living area ~1,498 (builder); Building area ~1,900 (builder); Builder license CBC039052; Permit number COBLD2508-3052
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $3,288; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly HOA approximately $71.67 (quarterly fee $215); Association approval required; HOA amenities: pool, recreation facilities, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball court, pickleball courts, gated community, community mailbox; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 20); Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors; Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction; Faces west; Completed / move-in ready
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (Freeport II model); Projected completion March 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Pond view; Irrigation system; Trees / landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air
• Interior features: Thermostat; Blinds; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($592/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $288,569 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-59,443
• Equity at exit: $49,800

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-80,419
• Equity at exit: $28,878

Cash invested: $93,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,752
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,224/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,823

Max offer price $334,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,500
• Closing costs: $10,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	16d	1	0.15mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	0.35mi
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	15d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $334,000
3. 2026-04-10
   price $337,000
4. 2026-04-03
   price $339,000
5. 2026-03-25
   price $342,000
6. 2026-03-18
   price $344,000
7. 2026-03-12
   price $347,000
8. 2026-03-05
   price $349,000
9. 2026-02-25
   price $352,000
10. 2026-02-20
    price $354,000
11. 2026-02-18
    price $362,000
12. 2026-02-10
    price $364,000
13. 2026-01-28
    price $367,000
14. 2026-01-14
    price $369,000
15. 2025-12-08
    listed $370,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,224 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,224 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,709
• − Property taxes: −$3,224
• − Insurance: −$1,670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,770
• − Management: −$2,770
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$9,716
• Taxable loss: −$5,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,220
• After-tax cash flow: $1,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $334,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $337,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $342,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $344,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $347,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $349,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $352,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $354,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $362,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $364,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $367,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Listed $370,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid