10409 Sharpsburg Dr · Independence, KY 41051

$300,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2007 0.37 ac lot Est $280k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful house in Troopers Crossing has been totally updated with brand new kitchen & baths! Updates include *New appliances *countertops *sinks *new roof shingles *new front door *fresh paint and flooring(in neutral colors)throughout! Spacious floor plan offers finished lower level with walk-out, and oversized two car garage, beautiful views, on a cul-de-sac street!

Key facts

• Extended driveway
• Two car garage
• Great backyard

Tags

• GREAT BACKYARD
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• TWO CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-764/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#130 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kenton Elementary School (math 59% / reading 52%, grade C, #60 of 676 statewide, top 9%, 627 students, 42% FRL); Woodland Middle School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade D, #40 of 217 statewide, top 19%, 616 students, 48% FRL); Simon Kenton High School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 1,859 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 257 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $300k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $235,337 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10409 Sharpsburg Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,098 (0%)	1mo	$301,000	$274	99
1197 Catletts Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,090 (-1%)	2mo	$289,900	$266	83
10410 Sharpsburg Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,130 (+3%)	14mo	$200,000	$177	82
10381 Chambersburg Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,117 (+2%)	1mo	$290,000	$260	82
10389 Sharpsburg Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,160 (+6%)	14mo	$200,000	$172	76
10343 Trent Ct	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,099 (+0%)	14mo	$200,000	$182	75
10393 Chambersburg Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,106 (+1%)	19mo	$260,000	$235	69
10377 Chambersburg Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0	1,124 (+2%)	15mo	$280,000	$249	67
10418 Calvary Rd	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,103 (+0%)	19mo	$275,000	$249	57
1341 Shenandoah Ct	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,176 (+7%)	3mo	$300,000	$255	54
1112 Brigade Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,153 (+5%)	15mo	$298,000	$258	46
10330 Sheraton Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,028 (-6%)	17mo	$279,900	$272	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,979
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-21,613
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41051

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,695/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,434

Max offer price $288,758

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $21	+0% $-64	+5% $-149	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-157	+0% $-64	+5% $29	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $13	base $-64	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10702 Brent Ridge Cir Independence, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1520	$2,775	$1.83	2d	4	1.26mi
1800 Brentwood Ln Independence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,309	$1.55	2d	3	1.32mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $300,000 Active
3. 2014-04-03
   soldstatus $144,900
4. 2014-03-31
   soldstatus $144,900 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   This beautiful house in Troopers Crossing has been totally updated with brand new kitchen & baths! Updates include *New appliances *countertops *sinks *new roof shingles *new front door *fresh paint and flooring(in neutral colors)throughout! Spacious floor plan offers finished lower level with walk-out, and oversized two car garage, beautiful views, on a cul-de-sac street!

5. 2014-01-08
   listed $144,900 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   This beautiful house in Troopers Crossing has been totally updated with brand new kitchen & baths! Updates include *New appliances *countertops *sinks *new roof shingles *new front door *fresh paint and flooring(in neutral colors)throughout! Spacious floor plan offers finished lower level with walk-out, and oversized two car garage, beautiful views, on a cul-de-sac street!

6. 2007-06-30
   historical
7. 2007-03-01
   listed $154,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,695 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,695 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,695
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenton County
• NCES district ID: 2103090
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $66,183
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #3789
• State rank: #14 of 165 in KY

Livability — Independence

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #6165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Independence, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 33,054
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,054
• Household income: $104,201
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.60%
• Current HPI: 218.492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+93.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $300,000 NKMLS
• 2014-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $144,900 Public Records
• 2014-03-31 Sold (MLS) $144,900 NKMLS
• 2014-01-08 Listed $144,900 NKMLS
• 2007-06-30 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-03-01 Listed $154,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,695 · +27.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.