102 Autumn Run Cir · Columbia, SC 29229

$222,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,523 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 214 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $273k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Summit Community Open House Sat May 9th 12-3pm. Welcome to 102 Autumn Run Circle, a home that makes everyday living feel simpler, lighter, and more comfortable. In a market where people want convenience without compromise, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home delivers a smart blend of comfort, flexibility, and low-maintenance living in a convenient Columbia location. From the moment you step inside, the home feels inviting. The spacious great room creates a natural gathering space for organized mornings, planned evenings, and easy entertaining nights, while the cozy fireplace adds warmth and character. The eat-in kitchen keeps daily life practical and efficient, offering the kind of layout that supp

Key facts

• Master suite
• Walk-in closet
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Partial brick above foundation exterior; Vinyl siding; Paved road access; Public water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the second floor; Additional bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including one main full bath)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Central heating and central cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-81/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.1% in Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in SC, #2,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Richland 02 (suburban): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #29 of 80 in SC (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rice Creek Elementary (math 36% / reading 34%, grade F, #339 of 597 statewide, top 57%, 737 students, 76% FRL); Ridge View High (math 43% / reading 76%, grade C+, #110 of 196 statewide, top 58%, 1,711 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 38% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,313 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,617
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1007 May Oak Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,342 (-12%)	24mo	$240,000	$179	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-36,865
• Equity at exit: $33,175

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,214
• Equity at exit: $19,238

Cash invested: $62,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29229

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,167
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,060/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,812

Max offer price $221,313

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $56	+0% $-7	+5% $-70	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-78	+0% $-7	+5% $65	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $50	base $-7	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,625
• Closing costs: $6,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Long Glen Ct Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,849	$1.41	4d	1	0.14mi
3 Glen Knoll Ct Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,699	$1.29	13d	1	0.61mi
225 Lawson Dr Columbia, SC	2.0	2.0	1288	$1,580	$1.23	25d	1	0.64mi
1214 Waverly Place Ln Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	13d	1	0.69mi
1116 Waverly Place Ln Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,875	$1.31	16d	1	0.76mi
500 Castle Ridge Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1753	$2,150	$1.23	5d	1	0.86mi
416 Sandfarm Trl Blythewood, SC	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,025	$1.22	16d	1	0.87mi
416 Sandfarm Trl Blythewood, SC	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,025	$1.22	25d	1	0.87mi
214 Elders Pond Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,350	$0.96	13d	1	0.89mi
5 Elders Pond Ct Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1640	$1,795	$1.09	16d	1	0.97mi
423 Elders Pond Cir Columbia, SC	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,475	$1.31	21d	1	1.08mi
4500 Hard Scrabble Rd Columbia, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,348	$1.31	4d	4	1.25mi
20 Helton Dr Columbia, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1167	$1,584	$1.36	4d	38	1.26mi
223 Sunny Hill DR Blythewood, SC	3.0	3.5	1892	$2,495	$1.32	4d	1	1.41mi
5324 Hard Scrabble Rd Blythewood, SC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,915	$1.93	4d	59	1.41mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $222,500 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,500 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,500 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,500 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,500 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $222,500 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,500 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $222,500 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,500 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $222,500 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $222,500 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $222,500 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,500 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,500 Active 195 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,500 Active 194 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,500 Active 193 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $222,500
18. 2026-01-22
    price $227,000
19. 2026-01-21
    price $230,000
20. 2026-01-21
    price $227,000
21. 2025-11-19
    listed $230,000 Active
22. 2023-10-17
    soldstatus $201,700
23. 2023-09-19
    status Pending
24. 2023-09-05
    historical Active - Contingent
25. 2023-08-24
    price $224,000
26. 2023-08-15
    listed $227,000 Active
27. 2023-07-28
    listed $225,000 Active
28. 2015-03-13
    soldstatus $105,000
29. 2012-11-13
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,060 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,060 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,463
• − Property taxes: −$2,060
• − Insurance: −$1,112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − Depreciation: −$6,473
• Taxable loss: −$3,933
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$944
• After-tax cash flow: $863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland 02
• NCES district ID: 4503390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,684
• Composite: 36.2/100
• National rank: #4730
• State rank: #29 of 80 in SC

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2436

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Richland County · 389,530 people
• City population: 335,994
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 51,861
• Household income: $74,043
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1939.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.6) · D 66.4% · R 31.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.7pp toward D · 2008: 28.9pp · 2024: 34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.6 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+32.9 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.11%
• Current HPI: 186.782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+111.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $222,500 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $227,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $230,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $227,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $230,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2023-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $201,700 Public Records
• 2023-09-19 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2023-09-05 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $224,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2023-08-15 Listed $227,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2023-07-28 Listed $225,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2015-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2012-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,060 · -69.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.