2319 Canal Dr Unit F26 · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$64,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Condo public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1972 $377/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great price on this one! Buy it and make it your own by adding a few personal touches. The Fourth Bayshore is a 55+ community with low fees of just $377.03 per month that includes cable and internet. This condo is perfect for the winter retreat or full-time resident looking for more affordable options. The community amenities include a nice heated pool, a very active clubhouse, shuffleboard, bocceboard, and two nice grilling areas. Conveniently located close to shopping, and Florida's beautiful award-winning West Coast Beaches, and both Downtown Sarasota and Bradenton, where you will find plenty of things to do and great restaurants.

Key facts

• Grilling areas
• Active clubhouse
• Bocceboard

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• BOCCEBOARD
• GRILLING AREAS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; pets not allowed; Buyer approval required for community
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $377; total annual fees $4,524; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $377; Association name: The Fourth Bayshore/Karen; Association approval required; Association amenities include clubhouse, laundry, pool, shuffleboard court; Association fees cover cable TV, internet, pool, common area taxes, maintenance (structure & grounds), management, pest control, escrow reserves fund, and private road

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking at ground level
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; 3-story building; unit on 2nd floor; Faces south
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Sliding doors; Sidewalk; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (located on floor 2)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Blinds; Building elevator
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 51% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 701 students, 72% FRL); Electa Lee Magnet Middle School (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 759 students, 68% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $65k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-8,029
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-11,994
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,207/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$377
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,070

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $108	+0% $89	+5% $71	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $-4	-5% $43	+0% $89	+5% $136	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $106	base $89	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2547 60th Ave W Unit L-36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	18d	1	0.05mi
2028 Canal Dr Unit M26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,050	$1.82	12d	1	0.20mi
5955 Palm Ln Unit A33 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	16d	1	0.25mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	5d	1	0.29mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	25d	1	0.29mi
1875 Sunny Dr Unit G32 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.32mi
1859 Restful Dr Unit L26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,150	$2.00	25d	1	0.34mi
1839 Sunny Dr Unit E36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,350	$2.34	25d	1	0.38mi
1825 Flamingo Blvd Unit O26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	25d	1	0.38mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	5d	1	0.39mi
5888 17th St W Unit C23 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.40mi
5908 17th St W Unit C36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	18d	1	0.43mi
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	25d	1	0.48mi
6050 34th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,185	$1.54	0d	19	0.67mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	5d	1	0.67mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,358	$1.50	25d	1	0.71mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	22d	5	0.77mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	13d	5	0.77mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	0d	3	0.77mi
2803 52nd Avenue Dr W Unit 2803 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,599	$2.13	25d	1	0.95mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	18d	1	1.20mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,269	$1.49	0d	16	1.26mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,407	$1.42	0d	1	1.30mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$1,868	$2.08	23d	10	1.30mi
6916 Marlin Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	430	$1,250	$2.91	25d	1	1.32mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	1.44mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	5d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $377 · $4,524/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $64,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $64,900 Active
17. 2013-12-16
    historical
18. 2013-02-27
    listed $20,000
19. 1992-08-07
    soldstatus $25,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,207
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − HOA: −$4,524
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$82
• After-tax cash flow: $990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+150.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-27 Listed $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $25,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,207 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.