1284 Turkey Creek Dr NE · Palm Bay, FL 32905

$121,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · Condo public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1969 $200/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The seller has not lived at the property since 2022 and has been upgrading the home for sale. Upgrades to the windows, flooring, a/c system, hot water heater and interior paint. The home still needs updating and the seller has decided to sell the waterfront home at this price.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Membership in Palm Bay Estates Mobile Home Park co-op; Monthly association fee of $200 covering cable TV and internet; Community amenities include barbecue, boat dock, boat launch, boat slip, clubhouse, dog park, part-time management, RV/boat storage, and shuffleboard court; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage with garage door opener; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Dock; Rear screened porch; Shed(s); Waterfront on a canal

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $121k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $121k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stone Magnet Middle School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 670 students, 69% FRL); Palm Bay Magnet Senior High School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,486 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $837 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,740 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.70%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-14,487
• Equity at exit: $18,041

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-17,544
• Equity at exit: $10,462

Cash invested: $33,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32905

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$635
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,908/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,406

Max offer price $121,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,250
• Closing costs: $3,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1452 Turkey Creek Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	958	$1,500	$1.57	23d	1	0.08mi
1199 Jordan Ct NE Unit B Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	18d	1	0.17mi
2485 Port Malabar Blvd NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	1.0–3.0	1181	$3,510	$2.97	14d	301	0.39mi
2780 Floresta Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,750	$1.56	23d	1	0.71mi
4714 Overlook Dr Palm Bay, FL	1.0	1.0	672	$1,475	$2.19	23d	1	1.21mi
4818 Overlook Dr NE #4 Palm Bay, FL	1.0	1.0	672	$1,250	$1.86	18d	1	1.22mi
1051 Clearmont St NE Unit 202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	993	$1,480	$1.49	18d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $121,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $121,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $121,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $121,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $121,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $121,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $121,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $121,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $121,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $121,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $121,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $121,000 Active
16. 2026-04-13
    price $121,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    The seller has not lived at the property since 2022 and has been upgrading the home for sale. Upgrades to the windows, flooring, a/c system, hot water heater and interior paint. The home still needs updating and the seller has decided to sell the waterfront home at this price.

17. 2026-03-16
    historical 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    The seller has not lived at the property since 2022 and has been upgrading the home for sale. Upgrades to the windows, flooring, a/c system, hot water heater and interior paint. The home still needs updating and the seller has decided to sell the waterfront home at this price.

18. 2025-09-23
    price $199,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    The seller has not lived at the property since 2022 and has been upgrading the home for sale. Upgrades to the windows, flooring, a/c system, hot water heater and interior paint. The home still needs updating and the seller has decided to sell the waterfront home at this price.

19. 2025-06-23
    price $230,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    The seller has not lived at the property since 2022 and has been upgrading the home for sale. Upgrades to the windows, flooring, a/c system, hot water heater and interior paint. The home still needs updating and the seller has decided to sell the waterfront home at this price.

20. 2024-07-23
    price $269,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    The seller has not lived at the property since 2022 and has been upgrading the home for sale. Upgrades to the windows, flooring, a/c system, hot water heater and interior paint. The home still needs updating and the seller has decided to sell the waterfront home at this price.

21. 2024-02-01
    listed $280,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    The seller has not lived at the property since 2022 and has been upgrading the home for sale. Upgrades to the windows, flooring, a/c system, hot water heater and interior paint. The home still needs updating and the seller has decided to sell the waterfront home at this price.

22. 2016-08-16
    historical 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    TWO BEDROOM TWO BATH WITH DOCK ON THE CANAL ENCLOSED CARPORT AND GARAGE OPENER, MADE FOR PONTOON BOAT. LOCATED IN BEAUTIFUL 55+ COMMUNITY. COMMUNITY HAS MANY AMENITIES INCLUDING RIVER ACCESS, COMMUNITY BOAT DOCK, POOL, CLUBHOUSE, BOAT STORAGE 22.00 A MONTH AND RV STORAGE 35.00 A MONTH DEPENDING ON AVAILABILITY. THIS IS PERFECT ALL YEAR ROUND LIVING OR SNOWBIRD RETREAT BRING YOUR BOAT.

23. 2014-03-04
    listed $79,000 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    TWO BEDROOM TWO BATH WITH DOCK ON THE CANAL ENCLOSED CARPORT AND GARAGE OPENER, MADE FOR PONTOON BOAT. LOCATED IN BEAUTIFUL 55+ COMMUNITY. COMMUNITY HAS MANY AMENITIES INCLUDING RIVER ACCESS, COMMUNITY BOAT DOCK, POOL, CLUBHOUSE, BOAT STORAGE 22.00 A MONTH AND RV STORAGE 35.00 A MONTH DEPENDING ON AVAILABILITY. THIS IS PERFECT ALL YEAR ROUND LIVING OR SNOWBIRD RETREAT BRING YOUR BOAT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,778
• − Property taxes: −$1,908
• − Insurance: −$1,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$3,520
• Taxable income: $84
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20
• After-tax cash flow: $1,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,792
• Household income: $56,411
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1962.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.59%
• Current HPI: 309.8748
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+53.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $121,000 SCMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $121,000 SCMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $199,000 SCMLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $230,000 SCMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $269,000 SCMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $280,000 SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2014-03-04 Listed $79,000 SCMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,908 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.