78 Evans Ave · Trenton, NJ 08638

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1920 2,178 sqft lot Est $254k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 78 Evans Ave, a beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located on a charming residential street in Trenton. This inviting property features a warm and welcoming front porch, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the neighborhood. Step inside to a bright and airy living space with abundant natural light, neutral tones, and a comfortable layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home offers a spacious living room, a well-appointed kitchen, and generously sized bedrooms. The property also features a private backyard and a well-kept exterior, along with great curb appeal highlighted by its distinctive red façade. Conveniently located near local amenities,

Key facts

• Well-kept exterior
• Private backyard
• 2,178 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WELL-KEPT EXTERIOR
• DISTINCTIVE RED FAÇADE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property (living area approximately 1328); Located in Chambersburg / Trenton area
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Cooling present (other type)
• Interior features: No fireplaces reported; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $200k implies a 2122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.55%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,648
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Dexter St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-10%)	1mo	$139,000	$116	69
42 E Paul Ave	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,443 (+9%)	11mo	$275,000	$191	60
417 N Montgomery St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,401 (+6%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	58
27--29-31 Kelsey	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,365 (+3%)	4mo	$150,000	$110	49
118 Hazel	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,399 (+5%)	8mo	$340,000	$243	45
133 Robbins Ave	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,176 (-11%)	6mo	$370,000	$315	44
9 Borden Way	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,485 (+12%)	19mo	$255,000	$172	33
801 Spruce St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (+14%)	10mo	$310,000	$205	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,299
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $36,633
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08638

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,450/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
77 Race St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	21d	1	0.04mi
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	0.29mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	21d	1	0.34mi
24 New Trent St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,350	$1.76	14d	1	0.39mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	0.46mi
42 Grant St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.54mi
34 Southard St #2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1808	$2,150	$1.19	21d	1	0.59mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,392	$1.55	21d	1	0.65mi
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	14d	1	0.65mi
331 Ellis Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1190	$2,275	$1.91	21d	1	0.69mi
21 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.72mi
8 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,900	$1.51	21d	1	0.76mi
1100 Prospect St Unit 1 Ewing Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	21d	1	0.76mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	14d	2	0.79mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	0.88mi
311 Calhoun St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1516	$2,400	$1.58	44d	1	0.89mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	0.92mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	0.92mi
27 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	21d	1	0.94mi
1040 Indiana Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1232	$2,950	$2.39	14d	1	1.00mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	21d	1	1.02mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	1.04mi
307 Spring St Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$2,000	$1.19	21d	1	1.06mi
307 Spring St Unit 3 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$1,800	$1.07	21d	1	1.06mi
307 Spring St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$1,750	$1.04	21d	1	1.06mi
186 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,400	$2.26	4d	1	1.06mi
311 Spring St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	14d	1	1.06mi
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	21d	1	1.09mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	21d	1	1.20mi
600 Artisan St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,650	$1.90	13d	3	1.21mi
600 Artisan St Unit 126 Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,650	$1.90	20d	1	1.21mi
239 Ardmore Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,750	$1.65	21d	1	1.24mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	1.29mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	1.35mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	14d	4	1.38mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	21d	1	1.44mi
20 N Overbrook Ave Unit B Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1518	$2,300	$1.52	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    status Active
16. 2026-03-31
    historical
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $200,000 Active
18. 2026-02-28
    historical
19. 2026-02-20
    price $249,990
20. 2026-01-31
    status Active
21. 2026-01-30
    historical
22. 2026-01-26
    price $264,900
23. 2026-01-06
    listed $274,900 Active
24. 1981-02-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,450 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,715 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,265/yr (+$105/mo · 51.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,450
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$544
• After-tax cash flow: $4,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 22,816
• Household income: $66,875
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.00%
• Current HPI: 334.5143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+2122.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-03-31 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $200,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $249,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $264,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1981-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,450 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.