9912 Kinloch · Dearborn Heights, MI 48239

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1949 6,098 sqft lot Est $166k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This tenderly loved and maintained 3 bedroom BRICK RANCH in South Redford exudes the retro charm you love with a thoughtful, flexible floor plan you've been waiting for!! You will definitely appreciate its' "great bones". .. .from the classy curb appeal, to the ample living room with quaint dining alcove; to the updated kitchen, the RETRO ceramic bath, to the THREE good sized bedrooms (one of which was used previously as a FORMAL dining room). .. and, HEY! wait til you see the ADDITION. .. . it can be a PERFECT home office/music/tv/or family room and it also includes the OPTION of a first floor laundry area! The entire basement is squeaky-clean (partially finished) with VC

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; Carport; Garage approximately 14 x 20; 1 space in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas; Forced air heating; Gas water heater
• Home design: Residential, 1-story home; Built in 1949; Basement present (below grade finished area noted)
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Fenced yard; Patio; Shed; Paved street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on entry level; Range/Oven included
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Entry level) with carpet; Bedroom 2 (Entry level) with carpet; Bedroom 3 (Entry level) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas, family room, dining room, bedrooms, and laundry room; Vinyl in kitchen; Ceramic in bathroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (Entry level) with ceramic floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heat source; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Fireplace in family room (electric); Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on entry level (9 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.5% in Dearborn Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#82 in MI, #1,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, employment D+.
• South Redford School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #455 of 540 in MI (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $176,665 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.41%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9636 Centralia	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,043 (+1%)	4mo	$135,000	$129	87
9983 Hemingway	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,059 (+2%)	3mo	$149,000	$141	81
9624 Nathaline	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,019 (-2%)	3mo	$209,000	$205	78
9960 Rockland	0.07mi	3/2.0	937 (-10%)	2mo	$150,000	$160	75
11757 Eileen	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+0%)	0mo	$220,000	$212	75
9010 Leverne	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-2%)	2mo	$220,000	$216	69
11748 Leverne	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,075 (+4%)	4mo	$142,000	$132	65
9560 Nathaline	0.39mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,125 (+9%)	1mo	$142,500	$127	60
9656 Sioux	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (+8%)	2mo	$147,500	$132	58
9130 Kinloch	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+10%)	3mo	$123,000	$108	58
9648 Nathaline Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	894 (-14%)	4mo	$145,000	$162	57
11756 Berwyn	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	930 (-10%)	2mo	$167,500	$180	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,835
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,892
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48239

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $771/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12107 Centralia Redford, MI	3.0	1.0	912	$1,800	$1.97	43d	1	0.61mi
12097 Cavell St Livonia, MI	3.0	1.0	985	$1,200	$1.22	1d	1	1.02mi
11726 Deering St Livonia, MI	4.0	1.5	1248	$2,125	$1.70	1d	1	1.04mi
8455 Robindale Ave Dearborn Heights, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	4d	1	1.09mi
27201 Canfield St W Dearborn Heights, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,499	$1.76	1d	22	1.13mi
8402 Robindale Ave Dearborn Heights, MI	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,600	$1.34	15d	1	1.15mi
13231 Hemingway Redford, MI	3.0	1.5	1074	$1,700	$1.58	16d	1	1.26mi
8187 Lenore St Dearborn Heights, MI	2.0	1.0	768	$1,550	$2.02	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   remarks 689-char remark
10. 2026-06-01
    statuslisting id $199,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    remarks 679-char remark
12. 2026-05-31
    listed $199,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $771 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,147/yr (+$96/mo · 148.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$771
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $2,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Redford School District
• NCES district ID: 2632280
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 18.1/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #455 of 540 in MI

Livability — Dearborn Heights

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1885

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 61,771
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 36,976
• Household income: $71,151
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 34% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.97%
• Current HPI: 236.1136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.25%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $771 · -66.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.