955 Tonawanda St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$229,900

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,152 sqft · MultiFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 1965 3,300 sqft lot $55/sqft · 46% below area Est $428k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR & OWNER-OCCUPANT DREAM! Welcome to 955 Tonawanda Street—a fully functional, income-generating 4-unit mixed-use property ideally located in Buffalo’s Riverside neighborhood, directly across from Riverside Park with views of the Niagara River & High visibility on Tonawanda Street and minutes to I-190 and downtown Buffalo. Recent Updates Include: Tear-off architectural roof (2016) Vinyl siding (2016) New electrical panel (2023) Newer windows & hot water tanks. Property Sold As Is Condition.

Key facts

• Mixed use property
• Recent updates
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• MIXED USE PROPERTY
• VIEWS OF THE NIAGARA RIVER
• RECENT UPDATES
• TEAR OFF ARCHITECTURAL ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive. Per door: $559/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,844/mo this rent would consume 146% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $216,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.72%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,378
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -46.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $130,957
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $414,385
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,844 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,017
• Net cashflow: $2,238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,397	-5% $2,317	+0% $2,238	+5% $2,159	+10% $2,079
Rent	-10% $1,855	-5% $2,047	+0% $2,238	+5% $2,429	+10% $2,621
Rate	-1.0pp $2,354	-0.5pp $2,296	base $2,238	+0.5pp $2,178	+1.0pp $2,118

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$4,844
Total (4 units)			$4,844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $229,900 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    INVESTOR & OWNER-OCCUPANT DREAM! Welcome to 955 Tonawanda Street—a fully functional, income-generating 4-unit mixed-use property ideally located in Buffalo’s Riverside neighborhood, directly across from Riverside Park with views of the Niagara River & High visibility on Tonawanda Street and minutes to I-190 and downtown Buffalo. Recent Updates Include: Tear-off architectural roof (2016) Vinyl siding (2016) New electrical panel (2023) Newer windows & hot water tanks. Property Sold As Is Condition.

16. 2025-10-03
    status Pending
17. 2025-10-01
    historical
18. 2025-07-25
    listed $249,900 Active
19. 2024-01-09
    status Pending
20. 2023-12-29
    historical
21. 2023-12-13
    price $274,900
22. 2023-11-08
    price $299,000
23. 2023-09-30
    listed $325,000 Active
24. 2013-09-04
    historical
25. 2013-07-26
    listed $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,650
• − Management: −$4,650
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $24,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,919
• After-tax cash flow: $20,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2199.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-12-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-12-13 Price Changed $274,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-08 Price Changed $299,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-09-30 Listed $325,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-09-04 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2013-07-26 Listed $10,000 WNYREIS