111 Tulane Rd · Tonawanda Town, NY 14217

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1973 4,452 sqft lot Est $269k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

This well cared for 2/2 double in the Ken-Ton School District is a great opportunity for investors or owner occupants. Each apartment features an eat–in kitchen with white cabinets (stove and fridge included), 2 bedrooms and a full ceramic bath. The full, dry basement has a washer and dryer included plus hook-ups for a second set, 2 furnaces and hot water tanks all approximately 6 yrs old. Also included: 2 window a/c units, a 2 car garage with garage door opener and a brand new garage door, maintenance free vinyl siding and many replacement windows. Showings commence at noon on 4/10/26; showings by appointment only, as both units are currently occupied. Offers, if any, are due Monday,

Key facts

• 4,452 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two total units with separate gas and electric meters (2 of each); Unit 1 rent: $900 (month-to-month); Unit 2 rent: $1,250 (month-to-month); Owner pays: garage and water; Rent includes: parking and water; Operating expenses include maintenance structure and water/sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 garage spaces; Concrete driveway; Garage door opener; Parking included with rent
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Two-story multi-family (2-unit) property; Property condition: Resale
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Built (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Unit 1: Oven/range, refrigerator, eat-in kitchen; Unit 2: Oven/range, refrigerator, eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom (2 full bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Cedar closets; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Unit 2 includes washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,853/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 727% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $250k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $249,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Kenview Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,620 (+2%)	10mo	$275,000	$170	78
68 Tulane Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,687 (+6%)	11mo	$306,000	$181	76
170 Mayville Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+2%)	3mo	$199,000	$123	67
104 Shepard Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,633 (+3%)	8mo	$278,000	$170	65
145 N End Ave	0.12mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+9%)	16mo	$140,000	$81	61
161 Pullman Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+2%)	17mo	$280,000	$174	61
151 Henderson Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,664 (+5%)	11mo	$280,000	$168	60
174 Woodward Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+2%)	17mo	$285,000	$177	60
175 Mayville Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,674 (+6%)	5mo	$225,000	$134	59
86 Pullman Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+13%)	6mo	$315,000	$176	57
365 Washington Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,536 (-3%)	10mo	$249,000	$162	54
181 Shepard Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+13%)	17mo	$261,000	$145	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,591
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $91,907
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14217

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$515 /mo · $6,179/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 84%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,852
Total (2 units)			$2,853

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	23d	1	0.34mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	23d	1	0.55mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	10d	1	0.64mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	1d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2005-08-12
   soldstatus $95,000
4. 2000-11-30
   soldstatus $91,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,179 · $515/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,179 · $515/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$6,179
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,739
• − Management: −$2,739
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $62
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,471
• Household income: $73,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.52%
• Current HPI: 330.7596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.76%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+173.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS
• 2005-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2000-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $91,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,179 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.