4900 N Highway 99 #190 · Stockton, CA 95212

$104,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Land · 171 Days on market

Built 1972 $97/sqft · at area comps Est $107k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Stockton Verde! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home is a must-see! Featuring stylish laminate flooring, fresh modern interior paint, and updated bathrooms, this home is move-in ready. The bright kitchen boasts crisp white cabinets, and the flooring in both bedrooms has been recently replaced. The spacious and functional layout offers comfort and flexibility to suit your lifestyle. Conveniently located near the entrance and guest parking, this home is situated in an all-ages friendly community. So many possibilities with this onedon't miss out!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1972
• Listed 170 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Linden Unified (rural): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #806 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.48%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,167
• List price: $104,999
• Delta: -2.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $67,965
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $168,530
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $1,335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $104,999

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,394	-5% $1,364	+0% $1,335	+5% $1,305	+10% $1,275
Rent	-10% $1,139	-5% $1,237	+0% $1,335	+5% $1,432	+10% $1,530
Rate	-1.0pp $1,388	-0.5pp $1,361	base $1,335	+0.5pp $1,307	+1.0pp $1,280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,999 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,999 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,999 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,999 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,999 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,999 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,999 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,999 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,999 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,999 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,999 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,999 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,999 Active 153 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $798 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 159.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,375
• − Management: −$2,375
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $15,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,641
• After-tax cash flow: $12,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621810
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,534
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #10030
• State rank: #806 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B