4637 Fairmont Ave · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 232 Days on market

Built 1951 6,207 sqft lot Est $162k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perrymont - Fort Hill 3 Bedroom home minutes to University of Lynchburg, Liberty University, CVCC, Wards Road shopping, and dining. 2024 HVAC, Upgraded bath, painting and flooring. Nice backyard to plant a garden, a place for entertaining friends and family or space for your pets to run and play! Looking for your first home? Tired of renting? College Investment? Don't miss the opportunity!

Key facts

• Nice backyard
• Near cvcc
• 6,207 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEAR LIBERTY UNIVERSITY
• NEAR CVCC
• NEAR WARDS ROAD SHOPPING
• NICE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perrymont Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 337 students, 95% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $150k implies a 318% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4637 Fairmont Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	834 (+2%)	1mo	$148,000	$177	91
4807 Myrtle St	0.24mi	2/1.0	826 (+1%)	14mo	$152,250	$184	75
4815 Myrtle St	0.22mi	2/1.0	929 (+14%)	6mo	$184,000	$198	62
1200 Brandon Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0	846 (+4%)	5mo	$169,900	$201	61
4812 Windsor Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	922 (+13%)	7mo	$169,900	$184	58
4600 Greenwood Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0	933 (+14%)	1mo	$192,000	$206	58
1141 Stratford Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0	843 (+3%)	14mo	$105,000	$125	56
612 Thomas Rd	0.59mi	2/1.0	742 (-9%)	2mo	$105,000	$142	56
1117 Stratford Rd	0.50mi	2/1.0	750 (-8%)	13mo	$150,000	$200	52
718 Kenbridge Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0	742 (-9%)	3mo	$176,696	$238	52
1128 Stratford Road Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0	882 (+8%)	12mo	$155,000	$176	51
1301 Harding St	0.71mi	2/1.0	756 (-7%)	12mo	$199,900	$264	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,694
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $17,228
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,403 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,114/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,192

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4607 Fairmont Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1001	$1,650	$1.65	21d	1	0.12mi
1009 Lindsay St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	43d	1	0.36mi
4647 Ferncliff Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,800	$1.74	43d	1	0.49mi
4300 Tremont St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,200	$1.07	43d	1	0.53mi
1218 Shirley Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	742	$950	$1.28	21d	1	0.68mi
4067 Fort Ave Unit 3 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$995	$1.05	21d	1	0.78mi
1320 Saint Cloud Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	44d	1	0.88mi
302 Fleetwood Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	856	$995	$1.16	21d	1	1.00mi
1400 Weeping Willow Dr Apt A Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,286	$1.28	13d	12	1.05mi
307 Killarney Ct Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,035	$0.94	21d	1	1.18mi
106 Yeardley Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1060	$895	$0.84	21d	1	1.25mi
202 Macon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	645	$1,195	$1.85	43d	1	1.25mi
412 Kerry Ln Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,108	$1.08	13d	12	1.25mi
540 Monticello Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	21d	1	1.28mi
803 Mansfield Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	21d	1	1.30mi
220 McConville Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1070	$990	$0.93	13d	6	1.34mi
111 McConville Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,105	$1.21	13d	1	1.45mi
101 1/2 Hampden Dr Unit 4 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1040	$950	$0.91	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   status Active
3. 2026-03-05
   price $150,000
4. 2025-10-30
   price $159,900
5. 2025-09-01
   listed $169,900 Active
6. 1994-05-18
   soldstatus $35,900
7. 1978-10-12
   soldstatus $20,000
8. 1958-07-21
   soldstatus $7,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,114 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$116/yr (+$10/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,114
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,347
• − Management: −$1,347
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$117
• After-tax cash flow: $2,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+2012.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — LMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $150,000 LMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $159,900 LMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $169,900 LMLS
• 1994-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $35,900 Public Records
• 1978-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1958-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $7,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,114 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.