209 S Locust St · Carrollton, MO 64633

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · Other · 33 Days on market

Built 1960 5,000 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity!! Ranch home on large lot. Could potentially be a great rental property, but needs some TLC. NOTE: This property is being marketed as a combined sale with 211 S Locust which is in a current Lease to Own Agreement (MLS#2449303 )

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Ranch floor plan; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction with brick trim; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Metal fencing; Paved public road access; Located outside flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Free‑standing electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all carpet)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Formal dining area; Walk-out unfinished basement with bath rough-in
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($347/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#80 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carrollton R-VII (town): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #178 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $85,000 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $61,693
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $180,109
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64633

• Home prices YoY: 18.8%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $238/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $813

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1108 E 10th St Unit B10 Carrollton, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    status Active
16. 2026-04-29
    historical
17. 2026-04-18
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-07
    listed $110,000 Active
19. 2023-09-07
    soldstatus Closed 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Investment Opportunity!! Ranch home on large lot. Could potentially be a great rental property, but needs some TLC. NOTE: This property is being marketed as a combined sale with 211 S Locust which is in a current Lease to Own Agreement (MLS#2449303 )

20. 2023-08-13
    status Pending 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Investment Opportunity!! Ranch home on large lot. Could potentially be a great rental property, but needs some TLC. NOTE: This property is being marketed as a combined sale with 211 S Locust which is in a current Lease to Own Agreement (MLS#2449303 )

21. 2023-08-08
    listed $35,000 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Investment Opportunity!! Ranch home on large lot. Could potentially be a great rental property, but needs some TLC. NOTE: This property is being marketed as a combined sale with 211 S Locust which is in a current Lease to Own Agreement (MLS#2449303 )

22. 2005-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $238 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$829/yr (+$69/mo · 347.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$238
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$380
• After-tax cash flow: $727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2907380
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,568
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #5779
• State rank: #178 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #5324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollton, MO
• City population: 4,504
• Population (ZIP): 4,504

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,269 people
• By 2030: 7,866 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,021 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 6,213 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 4,619 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 3,249 · -60.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.5) · D 17.4% · R 81.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -64.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.5 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+62.7 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.87%
• Current HPI: 271.4099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+214.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listed $110,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-07 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-13 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-08 Listed $35,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $238 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.