845 Mottern Rd · Oliver, PA 15767

$149,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1900 3.48 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet Rural Family Home – Move-In Ready Discover peaceful country living in this clean, move-in ready rural home, ideal for families looking for space, privacy, and a calm lifestyle. Set in a quiet rural area, this well-maintained property offers comfort, safety, and a welcoming environment. Property Highlights: Family-friendly home in a quiet rural setting. Clean and well cared for throughout, move-in ready with no work needed. Spacious layout suitable for family living. Home Features: Comfortable living areas with natural light. Functional kitchen with plenty of storage. Well-sized bedrooms. Neat bathrooms and quality finishes. Lifestyle Benefits: Peaceful surroundings and fresh country air. Plenty of space for outdoor activities Ideal for families seeking privacy and tranquility

Key facts

• 3.48 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#628 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Punxsutawney Area SD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #239 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $131,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,870
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $20,529
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15767

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $717/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,500 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,500 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,500 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $149,500 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Quiet Rural Family Home – Move-In Ready Discover peaceful country living in this clean, move-in ready rural home, ideal for families looking for space, privacy, and a calm lifestyle. Set in a quiet rural area, this well-maintained property offers comfort, safety, and a welcoming environment. Property Highlights: Family-friendly home in a quiet rural setting. Clean and well cared for throughout, move-in ready with no work needed. Spacious layout suitable for family living. Home Features: Comfortable living areas with natural light. Functional kitchen with plenty of storage. Well-sized bedrooms. Neat bathrooms and quality finishes. Lifestyle Benefits: Peaceful surroundings and fresh country air. Plenty of space for outdoor activities Ideal for families seeking privacy and tranquility

16. 2025-12-27
    listed $165,000 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Quiet Rural Family Home – Move-In Ready Discover peaceful country living in this clean, move-in ready rural home, ideal for families looking for space, privacy, and a calm lifestyle. Set in a quiet rural area, this well-maintained property offers comfort, safety, and a welcoming environment. Property Highlights: Family-friendly home in a quiet rural setting. Clean and well cared for throughout, move-in ready with no work needed. Spacious layout suitable for family living. Home Features: Comfortable living areas with natural light. Functional kitchen with plenty of storage. Well-sized bedrooms. Neat bathrooms and quality finishes. Lifestyle Benefits: Peaceful surroundings and fresh country air. Plenty of space for outdoor activities Ideal for families seeking privacy and tranquility

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $717 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,540 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$823/yr (+$69/mo · 114.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$717
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,471
• − Management: −$1,471
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $1,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $3,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Punxsutawney Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4219800
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,610
• Composite: 40.19/100
• National rank: #3787
• State rank: #239 of 539 in PA

Livability — Oliver

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #6056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 106
• Population (ZIP): 14,136

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,134 people
• By 2030: 40,512 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 36,747 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 32,755 · -22.3%
• By 2075: 24,402 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 16,398 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Polish 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.4% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+59.8 2012: R+45.4 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.60%
• Current HPI: 132.6877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $149,500 West Penn MLS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $165,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $717 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.