423 S A St · Blackwell, OK 74631

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1930 Est $64k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper home has been in the family for may years and it was left to me by my meme and I have no use to fix it up .

Key facts

• Built 1930
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 11.5% in Blackwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#385 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Blackwell (town): math 27% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #116 of 270 in OK (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Kay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.79%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,092
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
635 E Bridge Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,288 (-2%)	1mo	$67,000	$52	69
436 E College Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,134 (-13%)	3mo	$42,000	$37	63
438 E Blackwell	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,410 (+8%)	1mo	$90,000	$64	62
422 E Oklahoma Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,461 (+12%)	3mo	$65,900	$45	54
514 N 1st St	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,196 (-9%)	7mo	$30,000	$25	53
303 S D St	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,139 (-13%)	20mo	$62,500	$55	48
506 E Blackwell	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,470 (+12%)	14mo	$45,000	$31	44
304 E Oklahoma	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,464 (+12%)	20mo	$65,000	$44	42
119 Carson Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,114 (-15%)	13mo	$120,000	$108	38
406 N 4th St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,161 (-11%)	22mo	$56,500	$49	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $32,387
• Equity at exit: $6,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.97×
• Total profit: $78,082
• Equity at exit: $4,122

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74631

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $185/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $185 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 94.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$185
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $7,012
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,683
• After-tax cash flow: $5,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blackwell
• NCES district ID: 4004630
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,923
• Composite: 20.93/100
• National rank: #8480
• State rank: #116 of 270 in OK

Livability — Blackwell

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #20038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blackwell, OK
• City population: 6,795
• Population (ZIP): 6,795

Population outlook (Kay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,389 people
• By 2030: 42,222 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 40,108 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 38,231 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 34,119 · -21.4%
• By 2100: 28,526 · -34.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Kay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.4) · D 24.4% · R 73.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -49.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.4 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.78%
• Current HPI: 183.6342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $40,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $185 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.