19414 Lazy Valley Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · Townhouse public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1981 5,040 sqft lot $135/sqft · 9% above area Est $193k · 9% over $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and many updates throughout. Step inside to the spacious family room that has vaulted ceilings & a floor-to-ceiling brick fireplace. Continue through the elegant arched doorways into the formal dining room that has an upgraded light fixture. The kitchen and both bathrooms have been updated with quartz countertops, white cabinetry, and matte black fixtures/cabinet hardware. Both showers have beautiful tile, and the primary shower has a sliding frameless glass door. Neutral paint throughout. Fenced backyard with a patio and large shade tree. Walking distance to the community pool and tennis courts, and ideally located just minutes from I

Key facts

• $35 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Silvermill HOA — $420 annually; Community pool; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Faces south; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1981
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 16x12; Bedroom (First floor) — 11x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Quartz counters; Double vanity; Separate shower; Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-355/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jack & Sharon Rhoads El (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 796 students, 79% FRL); Cardiff J H (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 863 students, 84% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 27% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $210k implies a 425% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,744
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: 8.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19323 Hollowlog Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-1%)	1mo	$199,900	$130	92
19546 Lazy Valley Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-0%)	4mo	$200,000	$129	88
3302 Purslane Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+7%)	3mo	$209,000	$125	84
19307 Plantain Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-3%)	16mo	$218,000	$145	76
19514 Lazy Valley Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+7%)	9mo	$156,000	$93	75
3335 Deermoss Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-11%)	4mo	$189,900	$137	73
19427 Plantain Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,394 (-10%)	3mo	$170,000	$122	73
19411 Lazy Valley Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-14%)	10mo	$202,500	$151	68
19519 Woodglen Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,394 (-10%)	8mo	$165,000	$118	64
19214 Lazy Valley Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-14%)	7mo	$170,000	$126	63
19531 Lazy Valley Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-10%)	10mo	$198,900	$142	63
3351 Deermoss Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,393 (-11%)	10mo	$190,000	$136	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,077
• Equity at exit: $47,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-33,121
• Equity at exit: $48,098

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$416 /mo · $4,996/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,076

Max offer price $204,773

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $30	+0% $-30	+5% $-89	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-110	+0% $-30	+5% $51	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $24	base $-30	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19434 Brook Village Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,950	$1.07	45d	1	0.30mi
19403 Misty Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	7d	1	0.42mi
19407 Dawn Canyon Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,716	$1.09	45d	1	0.47mi
19138 Morton Rd Unit TOBC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,745	$1.60	4d	1	0.63mi
2606 Olster Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,571	$1.03	7d	1	0.66mi
2607 Cypressvine Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	21d	1	0.68mi
2622 Broomsedge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,050	$0.60	7d	1	0.69mi
2411 Shady Brook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,841	$1.07	1d	1	0.92mi
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	4d	1	0.98mi
19638 Southaven Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,769	$1.05	18d	1	1.01mi
2603 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,213	$2.32	1d	38	1.06mi
2919 Amber Cliff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	45d	1	1.11mi
18407 Early Green Trl Unit 1316402P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$3,988	$2.57	4d	1	1.15mi
3331 Dale Ridge Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$2,121	$0.96	24d	1	1.16mi
19319 Cypress Arbor Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1794	$1,890	$1.05	1d	1	1.19mi
19776 Clay Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,475	$1.26	45d	1	1.20mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	45d	1	1.20mi
18747 Denise Dale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,695	$1.49	7d	1	1.21mi
3310 Rainport Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1978	$2,416	$1.22	1d	1	1.21mi
19770 Clay Rd Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,818	$1.81	1d	14	1.21mi
2931 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,796	$1.69	3d	20	1.22mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,094	$1.45	1d	1	1.24mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2537 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,714	$1.42	45d	1	1.24mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,043	$1.42	1d	1	1.24mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,664	$1.38	1d	1	1.24mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,674	$1.39	13d	1	1.24mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,623	$1.35	1d	1	1.24mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,639	$1.36	7d	1	1.24mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2533 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,094	$1.45	45d	1	1.24mi
4211 Falcon Meadow Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,795	$1.25	26d	1	1.26mi
2411 Greenhouse Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$1,931	$1.74	1d	39	1.27mi
2937 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,456	$1.28	45d	1	1.34mi
19311 Cypress Bay Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	2052	$2,080	$1.01	5d	1	1.36mi
20000 Saums Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,839	$2.19	3d	22	1.36mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,929	$1.54	1d	1	1.41mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,200	$1.54	13d	1	1.41mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,149	$1.51	1d	1	1.41mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2963 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,820	$1.46	45d	1	1.42mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,189	$1.54	12d	1	1.42mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,969	$1.58	12d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $210,000 Active 720-char remark
16. 2026-05-08
    historical
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2026-03-23
    historical
19. 2026-03-02
    price $220,000
20. 2026-02-19
    price $225,000
21. 2026-01-29
    listed $230,000 Active
22. 2026-01-29
    historical
23. 2025-08-11
    status Active
24. 2025-08-01
    status Pending
25. 2025-05-10
    price $230,000
26. 2025-04-30
    listed $220,000 Active
27. 2023-12-15
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2023-11-24
    status Pending
29. 2023-10-24
    price $220,000
30. 2023-10-06
    price $225,000
31. 2023-09-20
    status Active
32. 2023-09-14
    status Option Pending
33. 2023-09-06
    listed $230,000 Active
34. 2023-09-06
    historical
35. 2023-09-04
    status Active
36. 2023-09-02
    status Option Pending
37. 2023-08-24
    listed $230,000 Active
38. 2023-07-11
    soldstatus
39. 2015-01-08
    soldstatus
40. 1991-07-23
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,996 · $416/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,996 · $416/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,996
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
• After-tax cash flow: $554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+425.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-11-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-09-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-06 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-09-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-24 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,996 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.