144 Cove Forge Rd · Cove Forge, PA 16693

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

1.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Williamsburg! Great 1.92 acre lot. This property has recently been updated with new flooring, giving it a refreshed feel. With just a few finishing touches, this home has great potential to truly make it your own. A great opportunity for a for anyone looking to add their personal style to a home. Property needs a septic system installed before being occupied. Cash or conventional loan only.

Key facts

• 1.92 acre lot
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($971 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Williamsburg Community SD (rural): math 35% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #260 of 539 in PA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $40k implies a 789% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.07%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $36,839
• Equity at exit: $22,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.83×
• Total profit: $87,483
• Equity at exit: $38,168

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16693

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,234/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $416

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $450	+0% $438	+5% $427	+10% $416
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $400	+0% $438	+5% $477	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $448	base $438	+0.5pp $428	+1.0pp $417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $39,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    soldstatus $4,487
18. 2026-04-14
    price $49,900 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Come check out this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Williamsburg! Great 1.92 acre lot. This property has recently been updated with new flooring, giving it a refreshed feel. With just a few finishing touches, this home has great potential to truly make it your own. A great opportunity for a for anyone looking to add their personal style to a home. Property needs a septic system installed before being occupied. Cash or conventional loan only.

19. 2026-04-09
    price $74,900 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Come check out this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Williamsburg! Great 1.92 acre lot. This property has recently been updated with new flooring, giving it a refreshed feel. With just a few finishing touches, this home has great potential to truly make it your own. A great opportunity for a for anyone looking to add their personal style to a home. Property needs a septic system installed before being occupied. Cash or conventional loan only.

20. 2026-03-27
    listed $89,900 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Come check out this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Williamsburg! Great 1.92 acre lot. This property has recently been updated with new flooring, giving it a refreshed feel. With just a few finishing touches, this home has great potential to truly make it your own. A great opportunity for a for anyone looking to add their personal style to a home. Property needs a septic system installed before being occupied. Cash or conventional loan only.

21. 2024-01-08
    price $80,000
22. 2023-12-06
    price $90,000
23. 2023-10-13
    price $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,234 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,234 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,234
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$932
• − Management: −$932
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $4,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $4,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsburg Community SD
• NCES district ID: 4226430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,977
• Composite: 39.22/100
• National rank: #4014
• State rank: #260 of 539 in PA

Livability — Cove Forge

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cove Forge, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,015

Population outlook (Blair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,571 people
• By 2030: 117,966 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 109,174 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 99,542 · -18.1%
• By 2075: 76,775 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 54,326 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Blair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.9% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.3pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.86%
• Current HPI: 133.0129
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-96.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $4,487 Public Records
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $49,900 HCBR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $74,900 HCBR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $89,900 HCBR
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $80,000 AHARMLS
• 2023-12-06 Price Changed $90,000 AHARMLS
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed $115,000 AHARMLS

Property tax history

+48.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,234 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.